With warmer-than-usual temperatures on the horizon this summer, a stronger and longer Atlantic storm season is ahead.
Speaking with CTV Your Morning, hurricane expert Sam Lillo explained why that is and what to expect in the months ahead.
“Ocean temperatures continue to rise, and this is over the last several decades, and we’re expecting to see this continue over the next several decades to come,” Lillo said, adding that even just an increase of one degree Celsius is enough to drastically alter the forecast of a storm.
“The amount of energy that’s available to a hurricane exponentially increases with every degree that the ocean warms, and what this really does is it raises the maximum potential intensity of a storm.”
The warmer ocean temperatures, tropical conditions and wind environment have created the earliest Category 4 and Category 5 hurricane on record forecasted for the Atlantic with Hurricane Beryl currently ripping through the Caribbean.
Lillo, who is also a forecast engineer, says higher category storms typically make landfall later in the season, after the summer months have allowed ocean temperatures to warm.
“Every one degree has that much more fuel available for the hurricanes to work with, and we’re talking about temperatures – ocean temperatures – that are closer to that of the middle of September,” he said.
Last year, there were 20 named storms throughout the season – which spans from June 1 to Nov. 30.
The National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts there will be between 17 and 25 named storms this year. On average, there are 14 a season.
In addition to warm ocean temperatures, Lillo said that low winds cause an increase of storms – something that El Nino played a role in hindering last year, as high winds “suppress some of our storm activity.”
What this means for coastal communities
Along with rising temperatures and changing winds and stronger hurricanes, the effects of climate change will have the additional impact of rising tides to coastal communities.
Lillo says rising ocean levels will cause stronger storm surges in coastal areas and create larger waves.
“As we expect ocean levels to rise along these coastal communities, we expect bigger impacts from storm surge and the large waves that come along with these storms,” he said.
With an interview from CTV Your Morning