Hezbollah could resort to international terrorism following the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, a top expert warned.
The Lebanese militant group, which has long had a presence in Canada, has lost many of its commanders in recent Israeli air strikes.
It’s headquarters was destroyed last week and “they are in disarray,” said Matthew Levitt, author of Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon’s Party of God.
“One concern is that if the group is less capable of carrying out cross-border attacks, it could resort to increased acts of international terrorism,” Levitt said in an interview.
“Another concern is that supporters around the world, angry at the loss of Nasrallah, could carry out attacks on their own.”
The collapse of the powerful Iranian-backed armed group will also be felt in Canada, where Hezbollah has been active since the 1990s.
Members of Hezbollah’s global network have lost their lines of communications and are likely fearful given Israel’s actions, said former intelligence officer Andrew Kirsch.
The former Canadian Security Intelligence Service officer said Hezbollah supporters might “take matters into their own hands.”
But he said Canadian police were “very much on alert.”
Inspired by the Iranian revolution, Hezbollah formed in 1982 in response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, and has been in conflict with its southern neighbor ever since.
With the backing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah became what the Canadian government calls “one of the most technically capable terrorist groups in the world.”
It also developed a global network to harness supporters and carry out attacks around the world.
Canadian Hezbollah members have taken part in several attacks. They include a Vancouver man wanted for a bus bombing in Bulgaria that killed five Israeli tourists and a local driver.
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Another, former Toronto grocer Fawzi Ayub, was a hijacker and member of the Hezbollah Islamic Jihad unit who was killed fighting in Syria in 2014.
While Hezbollah has not conducted any attacks in Canada, an operative was caught in 2017 collecting details about security at Toronto’s Pearson airport.
Hezbollah wanted to be ready “in case there’s a problem with Canada,” a member, Mohamed Hussein Al Husseini, told CSIS in the early 1990s.
But Canada was mostly “a facilitation and fundraising hub” for the terror group, said a 2020 report by the government’s Integrated Terrorism Assessment Centre.
While Iran supplies much of Hezbollah’s financing and weapons, it also relies on “numerous material supporters,” according to the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada.
“These individuals operate in many countries both within and outside of the Middle East, including Canada,” FINTRAC wrote in a 2018 report.
“In many cases, these individuals are not directly tied to the formal structures of Hezbollah, and operate successful businesses that engage in legitimate commercial activity. Some of the resources these businesses generate, however, are ultimately diverted to support Hezbollah’s official activities.”
Hezbollah also “maintains an international network of charities, non-profit organizations and other organizations sympathetic to its cause. These organizations exist in countries throughout the world, again including Canada,” it said.
With the exception of ISIS, Hezbollah was the terrorist group most often identified by FINTRAC monitoring of money flows, with a large portion of the funds going to Lebanon.
“Funds suspected of funding Hezbollah were frequently sent or received by individual/entities referencing sale of cars or listed in the automotive industry,” FINTRAC wrote in 2022.
The group has also used Canada to purchase equipment. In Vancouver, CSIS investigated a cell that was buying night vision goggles and other gear for a Hezbollah purchasing agent in Lebanon.
“Hezbollah has long maintained a particularly active procurement effort in Canada,” Levitt, a former U.S. counterterrorism official, wrote in his book on Hezbollah.
“Not only does the group have a significant pool of members, supporters, and sympathizers in Canada, but the country’s strong position in industry, trade, and finance make it an attractive place to procure dual-use items.”
Israel launched its latest offensive against Hezbollah on Sept. 17, when it detonated explosives planted inside thousands of pagers distributed to members.
That was followed by a series of air strikes targeting the Hezbollah leadership in southern Lebanon and Beirut. Nasrallah’s death was confirmed on Saturday.
The Israeli government defended its actions as a defense against Hezbollah rockets, which had increased since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, forcing the evacuation of parts of northern Israel.
The Toronto Police Service would not say whether it had increased security in the city in response to Nasrallah’s killing.
But a spokesperson said the police force “continuously monitors global events and their potential impact on our communities.”
“While we do not comment on specific security measures, we remain in close communication with our community partners and will be increasing our presence where necessary to ensure public safety.”
Kirsch said police were already keeping close watch for possible threats to Canada’s Jewish community, which has been repeatedly targeted during the past year, with attacks on schools and other institutions in B.C., Quebec and Ontario.
“They are extremely attuned to the concerns of the Jewish community,” he said of police.
“Just being around the anniversary of Oct. 7, with this still going on, with escalations in parts of the Middle East, I think everyone’s on edge.”