Shares of HDFC Bank fell nearly 13% in the last two trading sessions. About 17 crore shares changed hands on Wednesday and Thursday compared to an average of 1.2 crore shares traded between January 1 and 16. Out of the total shares traded, about 11.2 crore shares were bought on delivery in these two trading sessions. This amounts to nearly 1.5% of the bank’s total equity.
“The market will begin assessing the potential upward adjustment in MSCI India weight for HDFC Bank some point of this year, similar to the scenario observed with Kotak Mahindra Bank last year,” said Sriram Velayudhan, VP-alternative research at IIFL-Institutional Equities. “The index provider had made an out-of-methodology decision to set the factor at 0.5 when initially adding it. Therefore, if it is convinced that the risk of reverse turnover no longer exists, it might consider readjusting the factor to 1.”
The stock holds a weight of approximately 4.36% in the MSCI India Standard Index. Ideally, following the merger of HDFC Bank and HDFC, the combined entity’s total weight in the MSCI index should have been higher, considering the total free float capitalisation. However, MSCI opted to maintain an adjustment factor of 0.5 instead of 1.
“An MSCI weight increase is dependent on FIIs reducing their stake by an additional 3.87%, from the current 59.37%, which could then allow the foreign headroom to exceed 25%, compared to the current 19.77%,” said Abhilash Pagaria, head of alternative & quantitative research at Nuvama Institutional Equities.
“If the HDFC Bank stock continues to face downward pressure and FPI-driven selling persists, there may be an uptick in headroom, potentially resulting in a weight increase during the May or August review.” The MSCI methodology notes that an adjustment factor of 0.5 may be applied when the foreign room falls within the range of 15% to 25%, based on periodic reviews. MSCI conducts these reviews once every quarter.