Apart from the deceleration in government spending, higher direct tax collections and a likely sharp rise in issuances of Treasury Bills by the Centre in FY24 were factors pushing up the government’s cash balances, analysts said.
The flow of government cash balances to and from the banking system is a key factor that influences liquidity conditions.
“Government cash surplus as of Janury 12, 2024 is tracking at ₹3.4 lakh crore versus ₹1.6 lakh crore as of January 13, 2023. We see space for expenditure savings for the Centre on transfers to states which consists of finance commission grants, centrally sponsored schemes and central sector schemes, loans for capital expenditure etc,” said Gaura Sengupta, economist at IDFC First Bank
“Based on data from Finance Ministry, 15th Finance Commission grants to states are tracking 29%YoY lower in FYTD24 (Apr-Dec),” she said.
As on January 16, the headline liquidity deficit in the banking system was at ₹1.94 lakh crore, Reserve Bank of India data showed. Liquidity in the banking system typically tightens around the middle of a month due to tax outflows before easing towards the end of the month as the government spends on salaries and pensions of employees.
With banks facing a scarcity of funds at present, the weighted average call rate (WACR) closed at 6.76% on Wednesday, much higher than the repo rate of 6.50%. The elevated money market rates have pushed up costs of funds for banks, and in turn for corporates, looking to raise money through short-term debt.”It’s speculative to say that the build-up in cash balance is for any particular reason, but one thing is that the government started the year in WMA (Ways and Means Advances), so there might have been a target to build up the cash balance for the end of the year as well,” said A Prasanna, head of research at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership.
WMA is a funding facility that the RBI extends to the government in order to tide over short-term cash-flow mismatches.
Till January 11, the government’s net direct tax collections rose 19% annually to ₹14.70 lakh crore, official data released last week showed. Tax collections till then were at 81% of the full-year target.