General election latest: Grant Shapps says Tory victory ‘unlikely’ as Farage to launch Reform manifesto

It’s been a difficult campaign so far for the Tory party, and so in almost every interview of late with a Conservative candidate, the question is asked: “Can the Tories really still win?”

This was put to Defence Secretary Grant Shapps this morning by Times Radio, just a day after analysis by Survation found Labour could win a 262-seat majority on 4 July.

Mr Shapps said: “Yes, it is possible to win the election. Do I accept it is not the most likely outcome? Yes, I accept that, I am a realist.

“But I also think that when people start to narrow down on this focus, in particular I have noticed this with talking to people on the doorstep where they have been perhaps toying voting in another direction and then realising that just gives Starmer more power.”

During his interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Nigel Farage is asked over the resignation of Reform UK candidate Grant StClair-Armstrong after previously calling on people to vote for the British National Party (BNP).

Mr Farage said: “This particular case is a chap in his 70s, who 20 years ago said he was thinking of voting BNP as a protest vote, he was never a member of the BNP.

“However, we don’t find that acceptable. Now, we did put in place – with quite a well-known political figure, who runs a professional vetting company – we put in place something, we spent a great deal of money on getting that vetting done, it wasn’t done, and I’ll talk more about that over the next couple of days.

“With a short general election every party is having problems with candidates, but effectively when you vote … the choices are not so much the candidates in the constituencies – we’ve almost got a presidential style now. People are voting for or against Keir Starmer, Rishi Sunak, Ed Davey or me. They’re the names that are really on the ballot paper.”

Speaking to the Today programme, Mr Farage said: “Our plan is to establish that bridgehead in Parliament and to build that voice to build a big national campaigning movement around the country across the next course of the five years for genuine change.”

Asked by presenter Justin Webb if he would be vying to be prime minister at the next general election, potentially in 2029.

He said: “Yes, absolutely, I think the disconnect between the Labour and the Conservatives, Westminister-based parties and the country.,The thoughts, hopes and aspirations of the country are so far apart from where our politics is, and the funny thing is, they show no signs of changing.”

He said the more Angela Rayner and Penny Mordaunt debated in the seven-way debates last week, “the more they sounded the same”.

“Yes, we are aiming to be a big party,” he added.

Labour have claimed the collapse in Tory support is now so bad that only they can stop Nigel Farage winning Clacton if the last remaining Conservatives vote tactically for their candidate.

In 2019 Tory MP and former actor Giles Watling won Clacton with 72.3 per cent of the vote and a majority of 24,702, with Labour a very distant third on just 15.5 per cent.

Speaking to the BBC ahead of the launch of Reform’s “contract” with voters in South Wales today, Mr Farage is asked by the BBC what it will do to politics he if he is elected and his party do well.

“It gives us a voice of opposition,” he says.

“The Conservative party have been incapable of agreeing on anything in government, let anyone what the recriminations are going to be after they have suffered a huge defeat.

“Even this weekend we have seen Suella Braverman saying ‘oh, Nigel should join the Conservatives’. David Cameron saying ‘he’s ghastly’. They can’t agree on anything they are split down the middle.

“We know what we stand for. For democracy to function properly there needs to be a proper voice of opposition.”

Rishi Sunak has insisted he is the original Brexiteer and boasted of the Tories’ record on international trade since the UK left the European Union.

Defence secretary Grant Shapps said he understands the frustrations felt by those considering voting Reform UK, but said a vote for Reform would give Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer “unchecked power”.

Speaking to LBC Radio, Mr Shapps said: “I think there’s a sense of frustration out there and I get that entirely. But I think in the end, there are only two people who can be in Downing Street, it’s either Rishi Sunak or it’s Keir Starmer.

“And if you vote Reform, or Lib Dem, or any other direction for that matter, that simply helps Keir Starmer go in with unchecked power to do things like release all the people who’ve already been rounded up to be deported, which is exactly the opposite to what a lot of Reform voters would want.”

When questioned on polls continuing to show a Conservative defeat, Mr Shapps pointed to previous polls which suggested Britain would remain in the European Union and former prime minister Theresa May would increase her majority.

He added: “Polls have a history of showing a snapshot in time, which isn’t necessarily the time when the vote happens.”

Reform UK said its former candidate Grant St Clair-Armstrong made “daft” comments at a “difficult and angry time in his life”, after he resigned from the party for previously calling on people to vote for the British National Party (BNP).

Mr St Clair-Armstrong, who will remain on the ballot paper as an independent in North West Essex, posted on a blog called the Joli Triste in 2010: “I could weep now, every time I pick up a British newspaper and read the latest about the state of the UK.

“No doubt, Enoch Powell would be doing the same if he was alive. My solution … vote BNP!”

A Reform UK party spokesperson said: “Some 15 years ago, by own admission made some daft, inappropriate comments at a difficult and angry time in his life.

“He regrets them, and has resigned.”

Grant Shapps said it is unlikely the Tories will win at the general election, but it remains a possibility.

The defence secretary told Times Radio it is “possible to win the election”, but conceded that it is “not the most likely outcome”, adding: “I’m a realist.”

Asked if a Tory victory was unlikely he replied: “I think that’s the realistic position, isn’t it? I mean, I live in the real world. So you know, let’s not try and pretend black is white.”

Mr Shapps also said he stands by the comments he made last week that Labour could secure a “supermajority”.

He said: “We’re still fighting for absolutely every single vote, which is absolutely the right thing to do and warning of the dangers of Labour.

“But what I said last week stands, a blank cheque, a supermajority is a dangerous thing, particularly when we already know they have these plans to change the council tax bands.”