A man with Dior paper bag in Manhattan, New York City, United States of America on July 15th, 2024.
Beata Zawrzel | Nurphoto | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
Dow breaks 43,000 level
On Monday, the S&P 500 advanced 0.77% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.47%. Both indexes closed at fresh highs, with the Dow closing above 43,000 for the first time. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.87%. Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 index added 0.53%. The European Central Bank meets Thursday, during which it’s anticipated to cut interest rates for the third time this year.
Nvidia’s numbers aren’t a hallucination
Nvidia shares rose 2.4% to close at $138.07, a new record for the stock. The artificial intelligence chipmaker’s previous high was $135.58, which it hit on June 18. Year to date, the stock has risen around 180%. More impressively, if we compare its price from the start of 2023 until today, Nvidia shares are up more than 800%.
Tread with caution
The U.S. Federal Reserve might slow down its pace and the size of interest rate cuts at its upcoming meetings, suggested Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday. Data on employment, inflation and economic growth have signaled that the “economy may not be slowing as much as desired,” Waller said.
Fasten your seatbelts
The strike by Boeing workers is now in its second month. It has already cost Boeing more than $1 billion, according to estimations by S&P Global, and negotiations are still at an impasse. On Friday afternoon, CEO Kelly Ortberg announced Boeing will cut 17,000 jobs, and will not deliver its wide-body 777X plane until 2026 — six years behind schedule.
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The bottom line
Unlike the beleaguered Boeing, which is struggling to get manufacturing of its 777X plane off the ground, the U.S. economy looks like it might cruise the skies for longer than expected.
After the strong slate of data on employment, income growth and inflation, there’s chatter that the U.S. economy, thought to be on track for a soft landing, might not land at all.
A soft landing is the scenario in which inflation drops to the Fed’s 2% target while economic growth and employment remain healthy. A “no landing,” on the other hand, is when the economy continues expanding as inflation remains high.
Referring to revisions to second-quarter gross domestic income and savings rate, Fed Governor Waller remarked, “These revisions suggest that the economy is much stronger than previously thought, with little indication of a major slowdown in economic activity,”
Echoing that sentiment, Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen thinks inflation risks are still high because of increasing commodity prices, growing money supply and looser-than-expected monetary policy from major central banks, among other reasons.
After the consumer price index report, markets will be monitoring the U.S. retail sales report, out Thursday, for any signs that the economy and inflation are still hot.
“The ‘no landing’ narrative could continue to strengthen if we get blowout retail sales this week,” Ohsung Kwon, an equity and quant strategist at Bank of America Securities, wrote in a Monday note.
But even if the plane continues in cruise control, don’t panic.
“Whatever happens in the near term, my baseline still calls for reducing the policy rate gradually over the next year,” Waller said.
And BofA thinks the “no landing” scenario is actually “bullish for stocks, in our view, as long as inflation doesn’t flare up,” according to Kwon.
For now, investors can strap in and enjoy the ride. Better to be miles above the ground for longer, than stuck hapless in a stuffy cabin, unable to take off.
– CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Sarah Min, Lisa Kailai Han and Yun Li contributed to this story.