The Queensland Liberal National party leader, David Crisafulli, has walked back his campaign promise to resign if crime victim numbers do not reduce under a government led by him, claiming on Friday that he was referring to per capita rates, and not the overall number of victims.
The qualification, on the eve of the state election, comes as polls suggest the opposition has squandered a huge polling lead at the beginning of the month, and is in now danger of not winning enough seats to form a majority government.
Crisafulli made the promise to resign as premier after four years if “victim numbers” did not reduce, during a first debate with the Labor premier, Steven Miles, on 4 October.
“I’m serious about it, and I’m not giving myself any wriggle room. It’s victim numbers,” Crisafulli said.
“It’s not number of unique offences and what happens on a Wednesday, and how many young people repeat. It’s victim numbers.
“How many people have had their life torn apart? And there will be fewer victims.”
Criminologists prefer to measure trends by using rates – relative to any increase or decrease in population – rather than raw numbers. Some had said Crisafulli’s promise there would be “fewer victims” would be difficult to meet, given consistent population growth in Queensland.
During the past four years, the LNP has often referred to raw numbers – rather than rates – as it pushed the notion of a “crime crisis”. Its claim, for instance, that there had been a 116% increase in stolen cars since 2015 does not take into account population growth.
On Friday, less than 24 hours before the polls open, Crisafulli told reporters his promise to resign actually referred to per capita rates, rather than total numbers.
“I’m not sure anyone would suggest that as population increases, that figures would be commensurate,” he said.
“There’s got to be fewer victims. And fewer victims means less victims per head of population, clearly.”
Miles responded by accusing the opposition leader of making an “excuse for an increase in victims”.
“The fine print of his signature commitment is that there will be more victims. It’ll just be per capita. That goes against everything he has consistently said,” the premier said.
“Now, he’s given himself three body lengths of wiggle room by saying that he meant per capita, he clearly didn’t mean per capita, because he has been critical of Labor for that increase in victims, which per capita has seen a decrease.”
Polls at the start of October had pointed to a landslide win for the LNP, but the campaign has been upended during the past four weeks. An election-eve Newspoll had the LNP leading 52.5 to 47.5, and raised the prospect of a minority government if Katter’s Australia Party gains seats in north Queensland.
Crisafulli’s message to voters noticeably changed on Friday. He said the choice was between a majority LNP government and a minority led by Labor, with the support of Katter’s Australian party and the Greens.
“I’ve been telling you how close this is going to be for years. This election is close. The prospect of a Labor minority government increases,” he said.
“That is a recipe for chaos.”
Asked if there would be a minority Liberal government, Crisafulli said: “I can’t be more categoric. The answer is no.”
He repeatedly said that the LNP would not seek to form a minority government and that if the party held 46 seats on Saturday night – one short of a majority – the LNP would not govern.
With additional reporting by Andrew Messenger