You would think that spirits would be high among college football fans across the country. A new season is starting, and the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff affords more postseason opportunities than ever before.
But there’s actually a little more pessimism at this point than in the last few seasons, according to our annual Hope-O-Meter survey.
No fan base is completely hopeless — like at Stanford last year — but supporters of 15 of the 70 power-conference schools (and yes, we are still including Oregon State and Washington State) said they’re more pessimistic than optimistic heading into the 2024 season. That’s an increase of six schools from this time last year and four more than in 2022.
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Conference realignment and the loss of players to the transfer portal are the primary reasons fans at many schools are groaning. In the same breath, there are more programs flush with hope than in recent years — at seven Power 4 schools, 100 percent of respondents are hopeful entering the season, and at six others, all but one fan is optimistic.
Fans at Appalachian State, Boise State and Memphis are also 100 percent hopeful, knowing their programs have a shot to earn the one guaranteed Group of 5 spot in the 12-team field.
It should be noted, of course, that our survey was conducted before Florida State lost to Georgia Tech.
Important topics
So, what were the most commonly used words or phrases fans typed to describe what they’re feeling, and which fan bases used them the most?
• “Transfer portal” came up close to 300 times among the 4,000-plus responses and was used most by joyous Florida State, NC State, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Syracuse fans.
Fans of Group of 5 schools were not nearly as pleased with the portal.
“NIL and transfer portal do not favor the Group of 5 schools,” Colorado State fan Joe Anderson writes. “They are now minor league developmental programs for the P4 schools.”
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• “Recruiting” came up 147 times and was used most by Auburn, Missouri, Nebraska and USC fans — some happy, some not.
“Hugh Freeze’s recruiting skills give us hope for the future,” Auburn fan David writes.
“Recruiting has never been hotter at Mizzou,” Missouri fan Mike writes.
Trojans fans were a little more down on Lincoln Riley’s efforts.
“Recruiting in the front seven and offensive line has been a disaster the past couple cycles, and I am afraid that will manifest itself this year,” Patrick O writes. “USC will not be able to compete nationally until it gets this fixed through the next couple of cycles.”
• After coming up 42 times in surveys last year, “realignment” was mentioned only 11 times this year — mostly from upset fans of former Pac-12 schools as well as those fighting to remain relevant in a strengthened SEC and Big Ten.
One fan who cheers for both Oregon State and Purdue writes: “Unmitigated avarice destroyed a sport I’ve always loved and decimated a plucky, lovable program that was on the rise. My other team, Purdue, doesn’t stand to fare much better and will no doubt be lost in the next round of greed-motivated realignment.”
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A South Carolina fan is expecting the worst because of a tougher schedule.
“While I like Shane Beamer and think he’s done a solid job, this team could be better this year and still struggle to get to 5-7,” Jesse W. writes. “The realignment of the SEC with the addition of Texas and Oklahoma has made what was already a herculean task even more difficult.”
A couple of fans from Arizona and Stanford said they’re done watching college football.
We’ll see.
Where confidence is brimming
So, which fan bases are walking around completely satisfied with the direction of their favorite team?
Let’s start with Oklahoma State, where Mike Gundy is entering his 20th season overall and his first without Oklahoma and Texas on the schedule.
Ben Humpkin is pumped: “Almost everyone comes back from a 10-win team. What’s not to like? Plus, the Land Robbers are off the schedule.”
NC State hasn’t won double-digit games in a season since Chuck Amato and Philip Rivers teamed up to win 11 games and the Gator Bowl in 2002. Most Wolfpack fans are feeling cautiously optimistic, but some like Hayden are flexing with Grayson McCall at quarterback.
“It is going to be weird seeing an offensive-oriented Dave Doeren team, but this is far and away the most talented offense I’ve seen in my life as an NC State fan. The receiver room is loaded with talent and Grayson McCall is a proven veteran presence that doesn’t make many mistakes. Tony Gibson always produces a great defense so if it all comes together, watch out.”
Is this the year Dave Doeren and the Wolfpack win the ACC title? (Peter Casey / USA Today)
As you might expect, Ole Miss fans are also full of hope after Lane Kiffin cleaned up in the portal. Clifton Van Cleave expects nothing less than making the Playoff field.
“I think we will have the best team since the 1960’s — Playoff-bound for sure.”
Confidence is something new for Kansas fans.
Will writes: “Kansas has a legitimate shot to win the Big 12 and make the Playoff this year. Returning QB, awesome skill position players, tons of continuity and returners from a good team a year ago.”
Biggest risers
Indiana fans are fired up. The Hoosiers made the biggest jump — up 78 percentage points — following the hiring of Curt Cignetti, who went 52-9 in five seasons at James Madison.
“Coach Cig has a swagger and confidence this program hasn’t had for a long time,” Hoosiers fan Joe writes. “The transfer portal was aggressively utilized. IU has a relatively easy schedule. We’re going bowling this year! I predict a 7-5 record going into the bowl game. Go Hoosiers!”
California is set to travel more than 24,000 miles on trips back and forth across the country as a new member of the ACC. That hasn’t stopped optimism from increasing by 71 percentage points as Justin Wilcox heads into his eighth season in Berkeley with a 36-43 overall record. John Kaiser says switching leagues is just what the Bears needed.
“No. 1 RB in the nation. Everyone is about to find out how good the Pac-12 was and how bad the ACC is. First-year conference champions, Playoff berth and the first Rose Bowl in 100 years. Roll on you Bears.”
West Virginia fans were buried in pessimism this time last year when the Mountaineers were picked to finish last in the Big 12. Then Neal Brown’s team went 9-4, and fans are thrilled he’s signed through the 2026 season.
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Sam is dreaming big.
“I think we can beat Penn State, and I think if we do, it will catapult us into a TCU-esque run where we should be in the thick of the competition for the Big 12 title into mid-November. Not saying we’re going to run it all the way to the title game, but I think we can definitely put ourselves in a spot to be in the Playoff conversation.”
Optimism isn’t necessarily beaming at Northwestern or Stanford, but hope is way up from a year ago — 51 percentage points for the Wildcats and 42 for the Cardinal.
Northwestern fan Geoff Newton writes: “The record will likely decline, but the program overall is in much better shape than this point last year.”
Other fan bases feeling significantly more optimistic compared to last year: Iowa State (up 41 points), Syracuse (37), Rutgers (37), Virginia (36), Boston College (35), Virginia Tech (35), Missouri (28) and Michigan State (26).
Biggest fallers
On the flip side, confidence among fans has been shaken the most at Pittsburgh (down 65 percentage points), Mississippi State (57), Arkansas (55), Purdue (47), Illinois (45), Vanderbilt (42), South Carolina (41), Baylor (40), BYU (40), North Carolina (39), Oregon State (36), Duke (35) and USC (35).
Optimism is also down at three schools that recently played in the four-team Playoff.
Nick Butcher was not impressed with last year’s 3-9 season at Cincinnati following Luke Fickell’s departure for Wisconsin.
“My lack of faith comes purely from the head coach. I truly believe that Scott Satterfield is the worst coach in the Power 4. I understand year one in the transfer portal era is tough; however last year’s team was not just bad, they were undisciplined. That all comes back to coaching.”
TCU fan Jeffrey Chatman has completely lost faith in Sonny Dykes just two seasons after he led TCU to the national title game.
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“The Fiesta Bowl playoff game where we beat Michigan was the best football game of my life. The national championship game against Georgia was the worst football game of my life. We followed that up by going 5-7 and Kendal Briles of the hated Baylor Briles family is the offensive coordinator for my team now. … I want him to win, but I’m not convinced that Sonny is anything more than a nepo-baby that’s giving his buddies and their kids coaching jobs.”
Washington has yet to play a game under new coach Jedd Fisch and fans like Katie Carroll are already bracing for the worst.
“It’s not that I think our team doesn’t have talent, on the field or on the coaching staff. Typically, after reaching a national championship, you’d think there would be more excitement around the program, even with so many players and coaches leaving. I think in general, though, the fan base is just waiting for the other shoe to drop: Fisch ditching us for Florida when (Billy) Napier gets fired and starting this cycle of transfers and decommitments that we really can’t afford to go through again.”
Other highlights from the Hope-O-Meter
(Comments lightly edited for length and clarity.)
• Victor S., hopeful Alabama fan: “Awesome talent. Proven staff (just not in T-Town yet). Incredible energy. Something to prove … in my opinion, The Standard is getting a boost!”
• Matt, hopeful Appalachian State fan: “We should win the Sun Belt and have a realistic shot at the Playoff.”
• Daryl, hopeful Arizona fan: “(Receiver Tetairoa McMillan) and (quarterback) Noah (Fifita). That’s enough for me.”
• Russ C., pessimistic Arizona State fan: “Herm (Edwards) and Antonio Pierce devastated the program in so many ways it will take a long time to fix. Plus, changing conferences makes it less fun.”
• William, pessimistic Arkansas fan: “I just don’t think Sam Pittman has it, and bringing back (Bobby) Petrino was a mistake.”
• JD, hopeful Auburn fan: “We’ve already been in the dumps, so why stay there? Got to hope for better and at least recruiting has improved. Now that Darth Vader left T-town, maybe we can get more magic in The Plains.”
• JTB, pessimistic Baylor fan: “Poor coaching, meager NIL funding. Bring back Art!”
• Kevin W., hopeful Boise State fan: “I think Boise State has done just about everything right this offseason. From hiring Spencer Danielson as head coach to the recruiting class (both transfers and high school), and just recently announcing an agreement to keep Jeramiah Dickey as the athletic director. It’s been a grand slam. The sky’s the limit for this team. It feels like the Broncos of old are back!”
• Brendan Kelis, hopeful Boston College fan: “Bill O’Brien knows what he’s doing.”
• Adam Swindlehurst, pessimistic BYU fan: “Despite the Big 12 being wide open, I haven’t read much that’s positive about BYU’s chances of finishing near the top of the standings. I’m much more looking forward to what our basketball squad is going to look like.”
• Eric B., hopeful Clemson fan: “In Dabo we trust!!! Tyler from Spartanburg is an idiot!”
• Brian, pessimistic Colorado fan: “All flash and no substance yet.”
• John H., hopeful Colorado fan: “Six words: Coach Prime. Shedeur Sanders. Travis Hunter.”
Shedeur Sanders is back, and that gives Colorado fans hope. (Chet Strange / USA Today)
• Brian, pessimistic Duke fan: “Duke is coming down from two of the best coaches in school history, and their quarterback transferred. Having a new, unproven coach at a definite non-football school gives me caution. I can easily foresee some growing pains and some close losses.”
• Steve, pessimistic Florida fan: “Billy ain’t it. Inflexible. Boring high school offense. Cannot and will not make adjustments. Terrible in-game decision-making.”
• Jim, hopeful Florida fan: “If they could have tightened the screws just a quarter-turn last year, it would’ve been 7-5. Definitely expect improvement this season, though not sure how that reflects in the record with our schedule. Offense should be good, defense remains a question mark. But I’m hopeful.”
• Lauren R., hopeful Florida State fan: “I trust Mike Norvell.”
• Jeremiah Murphy, hopeful Georgia fan: “Natty or bust.”
• Kurt Hoyt, hopeful Georgia Tech fan: “I believe that Brent Key learned the right lessons from Nick Saban and is putting in the work necessary to turn the program around.”
• Shoe Mama Hensley, pessimistic Houston fan: “We have a problem. Get it?”
• Greg, hopeful Houston fan: “Willie Fritz means the adults are back in charge of the program.”
• Roger C., pessimistic Illinois fan: “In 1982, my freshman year at Illinois, we went to the Rose Bowl, and I thought we finally had a good team that could compete for championships. It’s been mostly painful ever since. I wish I understood why it is not a good football program. But at least there is basketball.”
• Drew D., hopeful Iowa fan: “NO BRIAN FERENTZ!!! WOO!!!!”
• Aaron, hopeful Iowa State fan: “OU and Texas are gone. The Big 12 is ours.”
• Kyle, hopeful Kansas State fan: “Avery Johnson + Dylan Edwards.”
• TJ Pettrey, hopeful Kentucky fan: “Possibly best defense of (Mike) Stoops era. Former five-star quarterback. Eight wins is a great season considering our schedule.”
• Andrew R., a pessimistic Kent State fan: “Might be the worst team in all of college football — regardless of division.”
• Michael Benson, hopeful Louisville fan: “Great coach. Nice transfer class including a huge upgrade at QB. Above average defense.”
• Norman Anseman, hopeful LSU fan: “I’m on the Nuss Bus. (Garrett Nussmeier) is the most underrated QB in college football. If the defense is only 50 percent better than last year, then the rest of the SEC should be scared.”
• Chris, pessimistic Maryland fan: “Maryland just seems to forever be stuck as a mid-level program.”
• Peter, hopeful Miami fan: “I’ve been hurt many, many times before by my optimism. But it feels different this year. I think the Hurricanes have a favorable schedule and the talent to do something special. Now let’s just hope the coaching staff doesn’t cost us.”
• Chris C., hopeful Michigan fan: “It can’t be as good, but it could be better than a lot think. And who cares after last year?”
• Jerry S., pessimistic Michigan State fan: “No reason for optimism at this point. Maybe in another year or two.”
• Paul G., hopeful Michigan State fan: “Mel Tucker’s gone, which gives me instant hope. Also, (Jonathan) Smith seems to be doing all the right things, including doing decently in the transfer portal and with recruiting.”
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• Jorj, pessimistic Minnesota fan: “Nothing ever changes. Big talk. Same results. Just one more log on the dumpster fire that is Minnesota sports fandom.”
• Jackson Burkett, hopeful Missouri fan: “It’s time for people, Missouri fans included, to shift their perspective about how good Mizzou can be. Last year we got a taste of the apple, and now we want the whole bushel. MIZ-Forever.”
• Ben Jackson, hopeful Nebraska fan: “Dylan Raiola is my lord and savior. Hallowed be thy name.”
• Adam R., pessimistic Nevada fan: “2010 Colin Kaepernick ain’t walking through that front door.”
• Ben A., pessimistic Notre Dame fan: “Feels like expectations are too high.”
• John MacCauley, hopeful Notre Dame fan: “Natty or bust.”
• Ron, hopeful Ohio State fan: “The best team money can buy.”
• Ryan, pessimistic Ohio State fan: “Ohio State looks great on paper but hasn’t earned anything on the field yet to justify its praise. Like John Cooper, Ryan Day is mentally incapable of beating Michigan.”
• Raffi, hopeful Ohio State fan: “Natty is guaranteed.”
• Luke McConnell, hopeful Oklahoma fan: “Everyone is sleeping on OU going into the SEC. The logic just doesn’t add up in the rationale for the lack of optimism from the outside. I think OU is going to surprise people, and I think OU being able to have a legitimate reason to play the disrespect card is going to be pretty cool to see and experience.”
• Todd, hopeful Oregon fan: “Loaded team, new conference, challenges are real. But we’re prepared.”
• Jake, hopeful Oregon State fan: “I’ve got a chip on my shoulder, and I’m hoping that my squad does too.”
• Fred W., pessimistic Penn State fan: “I’ll believe it when I see it.”
• Kyle H., pessimistic Penn State fan: “I guess I’m optimistic that we can go 9-3 and be the 13th ranked team in the Playoff rankings. After all, Groundhog Day is a Pennsylvania thing.”
• Mike Davey, hopeful Penn State fan: “Two words: Expanded Playoff. Now or never for us. We are!”
• Mike, pessimistic Pitt fan: “Clear regression last season and uncertain if (Pat) Narduzzi knows what adjustments to make. The offense was abysmal last year, and while a fresh, younger offensive coordinator may instill improvements, I fear that the 2021 ACC title season was more of a Kenny Pickett, Jordan Addison lightning-in-a-bottle-year, rather than the start of a sustained period of eight-, nine-, 10-win seasons.”
• Colin Meyer, hopeful Purdue fan: “Purdue will beat Notre Dame on Sept 14th.”
• Sean, hopeful Rutgers fan: “Best team since 2012.”
• John, hopeful SMU fan: “Ponies have done well in the transfer portal. QB Preston Stone is healthy. Defense looks solid.”
• Sue Glickman, hopeful Stanford fan: “But our library! Oh, the books!!”
• Dominic Chiappone, hopeful Syracuse fan: “After nearly a decade of being stuck in purgatory, this is the most hype I’ve ever seen the Syracuse fan base in my little time as a dedicated fan. There is genuine excitement about coach Fran Brown and the program, and that extends beyond 2024. #InMcCordWeTrust”
• W. Irons, hopeful Tennessee fan: “Heupel-Disciple”
• Kyle G., hopeful Texas fan: “Sark has been harvesting beef. (Quinn) Ewers is battle tested and people have stopped making ‘Texas is back’ jokes in The Athletic comments.”
• Rip Collins, hopeful Texas A&M fan: “No Jimbo!”
• E.C. Tex, pessimistic Texas Tech fan: “There needs to be a third option: I’m a Texas Tech fan, they have the pieces to win at least eight games and Joey (McGuire) has done a good job so far, but we heard that last year when Tech fell short of lofty preseason predictions.”
• Conor, hopeful UCF fan: “Gus Bus! KJ Jefferson and the best recruiting this school has ever seen!”
• Chris H., pessimistic UCLA fan: “Happy about Chip (Kelly) being gone, and not much else.”
• Justin, hopeful USF fan: “Byrum Brown is one of the best quarterbacks in the G5 and he leads an explosive offense. A strong recruiting haul should help the defense improve from awful to just pretty bad. It all should add up to a second straight bowl game.”
• James Buckley, hopeful Utah fan: “Playoff-bound if we’re healthy!”
• Alex Kucera, pessimistic Vanderbilt fan: “We stink out loud.”
• UVA Erik, pessimistic Virginia fan: “We are doomed.”
• TL, hopeful Virginia Tech fan: “Trust the Pry-cess!!”
• Brett, pessimistic Wake Forest fan: “The current model of college football is designed to dash the hopes of small schools. College football isn’t fun anymore unless you are a big state school or Notre Dame.”
• Nate S., pessimistic Washington State fan: “As a Coug fan, it’s pretty obvious, we just became irrelevant due to a dysfunctional system.”
• Isaac, pessimistic Wisconsin fan: “The glory days are past.”
Bold predictions
And now to some scorching preseason takes from our staff:
• Scott Dochterman: For the first time in school history, Iowa State will win 10 games while also claiming its first league championship since 1912.
• Mitch Light: The defending national champions will lose at least five regular-season games.
• Chris Kamrani: Shedeur Sanders will win the Heisman Trophy.
• Jayna Bardahl: One of the top four seeds will be upset in its first Playoff game. It will be the second consecutive year with no SEC team in the championship game.
• Pete Sampson: This will be Lincoln Riley’s final season as USC’s head coach.
• Justin Williams: FSU and Clemson stay in the ACC.
• Audrey Snyder: West Virginia finishes in the top 15.
• Kate Hairopoulos: Colorado makes a bowl game and Deion returns for Year 3. Clemson’s offense is revived and ranks in the top 15 in the FBS.
• Austin Meek: Kansas and Kansas State will both make the CFP.
• Grace Raynor: When Clemson makes its way back to the College Football Playoff, “College GameDay” will invite Tyler from Spartanburg to be the guest picker.
• Sam Khan Jr.: Matt Rhule and Dylan Raiola will lead Nebraska to 10 wins this season.
• Joe Rexrode: South Florida’s Byrum Brown will be in New York for the Heisman ceremony and not just as a spectator.
• Matt Brown: NC State will win its first ACC title since 1979.
• David Ubben: The SEC has three of the final four teams left standing. As a result, there is some short-sighted buyer’s remorse to the 12-team Playoff.
• Stewart Mandel: The SEC will get five teams in the Playoff.
(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos of Nate Yarnell, Jaxson Dart: James Black, Todd Kirkland / Getty)