Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is projected to beat Mufasa: The Lion King at the box office when the films open in December. Both titles open on December 20th, just a few days before the Christmas holiday. According to The Hollywood Reporter, current tracking indicates Sonic 3 will gross around $55 million domestically in its first three days, while Mufasa won’t be too far behind with $50 million.
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The Sonic movie franchise kicked off back in 2020, with the original film being one of the last major releases before the COVID-19 pandemic. Sonic the Hedgehog was a commercial success, grossing $319.7 million worldwide against an $85 million production budget. Sonic the Hedgehog 2, released in 2022, was an even bigger hit, totaling $405.4 million worldwide. Paramount has been generating hype for the third installment, as evidenced by trailers highlighting Keanu Reeves’ Shadow the Hedgehog.
Mufasa is a prequel to 2019’s remake of The Lion King, which was a monumental success. Jon Favreau’s movie grossed over $1.6 billion worldwide and currently ranks 10th on the all-time global charts. Domestically, The Lion King opened with an astounding $191.7 million, which was a July record until this summer, when Deadpool & Wolverine premiered with $211.4 million in the U.S.
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It’s important to keep in mind that these are very early projections, coming out three weeks before Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa open. There’s plenty of time for these figures to fluctuate one way or another, and that will depend on a variety of factors — including word-of-mouth. How these films fare with critics could affect their box office prospects, especially since they’re both family-friendly options for the Christmas window (when kids will be home from school). Both of these new arrivals also have to contend with holdovers enjoying very lucrative runs; Disney’s Moana 2 is already breaking Thanksgiving records, and Wicked has also proven to be a blockbuster. If business for those films carries strong into late December, it could impact how much Sonic 3 and Mufasa will make.
If these projections hold, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 would post the franchise’s lowest opening weekend; the first film grossed $58 million, while Sonic 2 earned $72.1 million. However, that shouldn’t be too much of a concern, as the previous entries were sizable draws overseas. Unless Sonic 3 unexpectedly tanks, it should be another profitable endeavor for Paramount.
This would be a considerable decline for the Lion King franchise, ranking in the middle of the pack for Disney’s live-action adaptations. Despite drawing from beloved source material — 1994’s animated Lion King is considered an all-time classic — the 2019 version wasn’t nearly as acclaimed, which could play a role in this low early tracking. If director Barry Jenkins delivers something special with the film and exceeds expectations, perhaps it’ll be a bigger hit than anticipated.