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Bitcoin is trading stubbornly below the $100,000 mark, putting the brakes on a blistering rally that’s seen the cryptocurrency rise to touching distance of the key psychological level.
The world’s biggest cryptocurrency has risen over 40% since Nov. 5, the day of the U.S. election which saw Donald Trump re-elected as president.
Trump’s inauguration isn’t until Jan. 20, 2025, but that hasn’t stopped his pro-crypto commentary from boosting sentiment.
Bitcoin hit a new record high last week, with prices climbing above $99,000 for the first time. However prices have since taken a breather, and bitcoin was trading around $98,243.25 early Monday, according to CoinGecko data — up only a fraction of a percent on the day.
CNBC asked analysts for their take on why bitcoin has so far failed to breach the widely-watched $100,000 mark.
Investors taking profits
Andre Dragosch, head of research for Europe at crypto-focused asset management firm Bitwise, said bitcoin was likely being kept below the psychological barrier as investors take profit from its sizable post-election rally.
Bitcoin has “so far failed to breach” $100,000 because “long-term holders have started to distribute significant amounts of bitcoins into the recent rally,” Dragosch said in a research note shared Monday.
Bitcoin
He added he expects the bitcoin rally to “take a break in the short term as sentiment remains elevated and positioning appears to be somewhat stretched.”
However, “this could be a bull market correction rather than a change in trend,” Dragosch said, adding that overall, “bitcoin valuations are still far away from being excessive.”
A squeeze on supply of bitcoin resulting from events such as the so-called “halving” earlier this year — which resulted in the issuance of new bitcoin to miners being reduced by half — will continue to support prices heading into 2025, he added.
‘Levered to the gills’
Mark Novogratz, CEO of digital asset management firm Galaxy Digital, said last week that although he thinks bitcoin reaching the six-figure milestone post-election is “inevitable,” a pullback was to be expected.
“There’s a ton of leverage in the system right now,” Novogratz, a longtime crypto investor, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday. “The crypto community is levered to the gills, and so there will be a correction.”
Novogratz added that he’s advocating investors buy “straight bitcoin” rather than bitcoin-exposed plays, such as MicroStrategy which owns a huge, multi-billion-dollar pile of bitcoin in its corporate treasury reserves.
He also flagged that one unknown seller has been dumping crypto in recent days, which could be pressuring the token’s price. “There had been a giant seller for the last week, between 92, 93 and 94. Probably $14-$15 billion of bitcoin sold there,” Novogratz said on air.
Where does bitcoin go from here?
David Morrison, senior market analyst at brokerage firm Trade Nation, said that although $100,000 is a “nice round number,” it “feels as if it has become a high hurdle, if not a barrier, for further gains.”
“If bitcoin starts to fade from here, that could be all we get — especially if longer term holders decide to cash out early,” Morrison told CNBC via email.
Nevertheless, he added that there’s a “strong probability that upside momentum can build up enough energy for a surge through here.”
“If so, then that could be the trigger for another push higher,” Morrison said.
Marion Laboure, strategist at Deutsche Bank, said that although Trump has indicated continued support for bitcoin and the broader crypto industry, any prospect of concrete federal crypto legislation remained some way off.
Pro-crypto pledges by Trump include turning the U.S. into a global crypto hub, forming a strategic national crypto stockpile, and replacing Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler — who last week announced he would resign on Jan. 20.
Deutsche Bank’s Laboure said she thinks the idea of a U.S. national bitcoin is still far off, practically speaking.
Meanwhile, major reforms will “require congressional approval on time, which makes these ambitious long-term goals more or less achievable, and there is also some potential turbulence of these reforms to fall short of market expectations,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”
Nevertheless, Laboure added that she sees regulation as “a net positive for the industry.”