Veteran Democratic strategist David Axelrod says Vice President Harris is caught in a “terrible place” on the growing conflict in the Middle East, which threatens to turn off Lebanese and Palestinian American voters in Michigan, a crucial battleground state.
“This is a very fraught thing for Harris because in some ways she’s at the mercy of events there. She and Biden are — but she’s the candidate — cross-pressured between an Arab community that is significant enough to influence the race in Michigan” and Jewish voters, Axelrod said during an episode of the “Hacks on Tap” podcast.
“It’s a terrible place to be,” he said, adding that Harris as the sitting vice president also has to worry about “the chaos factor that comes with war generally.”
“If [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] attacks Iran in response to Iran’s attack on Israel in the next 14 days, might that be a decisive factor in this race?” Axelrod asked.
He noted that the Trump campaign has tried to take advantage of growing instability in the Middle East by launching a new campaign ad that touts former President Trump as a strong leader and warns: “Nothing will change with Kamala. More weakness. More war.”
“You saw at the beginning of that Trump ad, reference to chaos in the world and images of the Middle East,” Axelrod said.
He said that disillusionment and concerns about President Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza and Southern Lebanon could impact young voters and Arab American voters, particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin, who tend to vote Democratic.
He noted “Palestinians and Lebanese around Detroit are deeply, deeply unhappy with Americans for providing weaponry to the Israelis.”
And he pointed out that Jewish voters may be unhappy Biden hasn’t had more success in brokering a peace deal despite all the weapons and munitions provided to Israeli forces.
A poll from the Arab News Research and Studies Unit and YouGov shows Trump leading Harris among Arab Americans with 45 percent support to her 43 percent. The survey polled 500 Arab Americans nationwide in late September.
It found that Arab Americans have more confidence in Trump than Harris to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict, 39 percent to 33 percent.
Most political handicappers believe Harris needs to win Michigan to defeat Trump on Election Day, and dissatisfaction among Arab Americans in the state has loomed as a big potential problem for Democrats for months.
More than 100,000 Michigan Democratic primary voters cast ballots for “uncommitted” instead of Biden in February.
Biden carried the state by 154,000 votes over Trump in the 2020 presidential election.