RBA expected to keep cash rate at 4.35%
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep the cash rate steady at its board meeting this week, sparing homeowners any increase in rate hikes, but also delaying a long-awaited rate cut that might see mortgage-holders granted any relief, AAP reports.
Due to meet over two days starting on Monday, the central bank’s board members will pore over the latest economic data before making a decision on the cash rate on Tuesday.
Economic teams at all four of the big banks were expecting the benchmark rate to stay at 4.35%, where it has been for months after an aggressive hiking cycle kicked off in 2022 to head off rising inflation.
With the economy growing feebly, the labour market slowly unwinding and inflation well down from its peak – albeit still above target – all four major banks expect the next interest rate move to be down.
Yet mortgage-holders stumping up hefty sums for their monthly repayments have a while to wait for relief with the Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac all pencilling in a November start to cuts.
ANZ broke ranks last week to push back its forecasted start date until February 2025.
While tracking in the right direction, hotter-than-expected inflation data in the March quarter and in April, where it rose to 3.6% from 3.5%, suggests rate cuts are a while off.
Before the June meeting, CBA head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird, said the board should have a “straightforward decision” on their hands, with all key economic data broadly in line with the RBA’s own forecasts.
In addition to the March quarter national accounts, jobs and inflation data, the RBA board also has state and federal budgets and the workplace umpire’s annual minimum and award decision to digest since its last meeting in May.
The latter was unlikely to shift the dial, Aird said, with the Fair Work Commission’s 3.75% rise lining up neatly with the RBA’s expected trajectory for wages growth across the entire workforce.
Energy bill relief and other cost-of-living measures in state and federal budgets had economists asking questions about its inflationary impact, yet comments from RBA governor Michele Bullock suggest the central bank would “look through” the one-off impacts on inflation.
Key events
Panda news ‘very exciting’, SA premier says
Peter Malinauskas has called the announcement Adelaide zoo would be getting two new pandas to replace Wang Wang and Fu Ni, “very exciting” and an outcome SA was “hopeful but not expectant” about:
The fact that Wang Wang and Fu Ni will be going home to China, as expected, then replaced by two new pandas is very exciting. It’s significant for the Adelaide zoo. Pandas are a drawcard not just for South Australia but for people around the country. They are the only pandas we see in the southern hemisphere so it’s a privilege for us.
We were working on this for a while. We were hopeful but not expectant to have the news is something we are grateful for. Wang Wang and Fu Ni were always due to travel back to China after being here for 15 years, so now to know with certainty they are going to have two new replacements is something that is important to the zoo also for economy around the city.
Li’s visit a ‘significant milestone’ for SA, Malinauskas says
Peter Malinauskas has been speaking about Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Adelaide today, which Malinauskas has called “a big deal”, not just for the country, but for South Australia “increasing its presence on the global stage”.
The South Australian premier called the visit “a significant milestone” and the first time the state had hosted “such a big significant state visit”:
He is only going to three places during his time in Australia. Premier Li landed in South Australia first and foremost and is then travelling to Canberra and then Perth.
I have to say I was genuinely taken aback by how much Mr Li was familiar with the work happening in South Australia, not just in the wine industry and the agriculture sector is but the critical work we are doing around energy, hydrogen, green iron opportunity. As well as the opportunity that exists around growing the number of international students in our state.
It speaks to the fact that the people of China, the Chinese state, is familiar with the economic growth trajectory of South Australia and we are very grateful for his visit.
NSW police civilian employee charged with domestic violence assault
A NSW police civilian employee has been charged and her employment status placed under review after an investigation into an alleged domestic violence-related assault, NSW police have announced.
About 11.25pm last night officers from Mount Druitt police area command received a report of a domestic violence-related incident and began an investigation.
After inquiries, a 36-year-old woman, who is an unsworn NSW police employee, was charged with common assault – DV.
She was granted conditional bail to appear at Mount Druitt local court on 24 June. Her employment status is under review.
RBA expected to keep cash rate at 4.35%
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep the cash rate steady at its board meeting this week, sparing homeowners any increase in rate hikes, but also delaying a long-awaited rate cut that might see mortgage-holders granted any relief, AAP reports.
Due to meet over two days starting on Monday, the central bank’s board members will pore over the latest economic data before making a decision on the cash rate on Tuesday.
Economic teams at all four of the big banks were expecting the benchmark rate to stay at 4.35%, where it has been for months after an aggressive hiking cycle kicked off in 2022 to head off rising inflation.
With the economy growing feebly, the labour market slowly unwinding and inflation well down from its peak – albeit still above target – all four major banks expect the next interest rate move to be down.
Yet mortgage-holders stumping up hefty sums for their monthly repayments have a while to wait for relief with the Commonwealth Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac all pencilling in a November start to cuts.
ANZ broke ranks last week to push back its forecasted start date until February 2025.
While tracking in the right direction, hotter-than-expected inflation data in the March quarter and in April, where it rose to 3.6% from 3.5%, suggests rate cuts are a while off.
Before the June meeting, CBA head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird, said the board should have a “straightforward decision” on their hands, with all key economic data broadly in line with the RBA’s own forecasts.
In addition to the March quarter national accounts, jobs and inflation data, the RBA board also has state and federal budgets and the workplace umpire’s annual minimum and award decision to digest since its last meeting in May.
The latter was unlikely to shift the dial, Aird said, with the Fair Work Commission’s 3.75% rise lining up neatly with the RBA’s expected trajectory for wages growth across the entire workforce.
Energy bill relief and other cost-of-living measures in state and federal budgets had economists asking questions about its inflationary impact, yet comments from RBA governor Michele Bullock suggest the central bank would “look through” the one-off impacts on inflation.
Next election will be fought on energy policy, Dutton foreshadows
Ben Smee
Penny Wong has warned that ditching 2030 greenhouse gas reduction targets would lead to higher electricity prices as Peter Dutton foreshadowed an election campaign fought on energy policy.
The opposition leader told Sky News on Sunday that energy would be a “big difference between the two parties as we head into the next election”, a week after backing away from Australia’s legislated 2030 emissions target of a 43% cut compared with 2005 levels.
A renewables-only approach that the government has adopted is going to continue to drive up power prices.
He claimed that rising grocery prices were caused by a rise in power bills.
Speaking soon afterwards on ABC’s Insiders, Wong said it was “mindbogglingly absurd for [Dutton] to suggest that more uncertainty will do anything other than increase costs”:
His policy is a policy that will lead to higher electricity bills for Australians.
During their tenure of government, when they had in excess of 20 policies, what did that uncertainty mean? Twenty-four coal stations announced closure.
You have a situation where the market looks at this and says, “We have a lot of uncertainty so we’re not going to invest.”
Meanwhile the old technology is exiting the market. You’re reducing supply, what does that mean, you’re increasing electricity prices.
‘Adorable’ new pandas coming to Adelaide zoo
China will loan Australia new “adorable” giant pandas to replace a popular pair that failed to produce offspring in more than a decade together, visiting premier Li Qiang announced today.
At an event at the zoo, Li said through a translator:
Wang Wang and Fu Ni have been a way from home for more than 15 years, I guess they must have missed their home a lot. So they will return to China before the end of the year.
But what I want to tell you is that we will provide a new pair of uniquely beautiful, lovely and adorable [pandas] to the Adelaide Zoo.
Adelaide Zoo has been home to Wang Wang and Fu Ni since 2009 when they were lent by China as part of a global preservation scheme that also serves as a tool of “panda diplomacy”.
Breeding panda cubs is a notoriously difficult task for the low-sexed creatures and hopes of a pregnancy in Adelaide, including through the use of artificial insemination, have been repeatedly dashed.
As one of the furry giants played with a strip of tree in the background, Li delivered the news that they will be going home.
China would provide Australia with candidates to choose from, said Li, who landed in Adelaide yesterday on a four-day fence-mending trip after Beijing withdrew a string of trade sanctions on major Australian exports.
The announcement is a nod to Penny Wong’s efforts to stabilise Australia’s relationship with China, after a diplomatic rift with the former conservative government.
Li said he remembered the Australian foreign affairs minister had twice reminded him during a visit to Beijing last November that the panda loan agreement would expire this year:
We have made this announcement to fulfil the wishes of the minister.
Adelaide is Wong’s home town, and she said her own children would be “very happy” at the news:
It’s good for the economy, it’s good for South Australian jobs, it’s good for tourism and it’s a symbol of goodwill, and we thank you.
There are an estimated 1,860 giant pandas left in the wild, according to the environmental group WWF.
But the animals, which were removed from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s endangered species list in 2016, still face serious threats from loss of habitat and fragmentation.
Joe Hinchliffe
Reality check: children are struggling to decipher fake news
A 2023 study found that just 41% of children aged eight to 16 are confident they could tell fake news from real news stories.
Just one in four young people said they had received a lesson at school in the past year to help them work out if news stories are true and can be trusted.
Bryce Corbett, founder of the children’s news podcast Squiz Kids, says:
I don’t think it is overblown to say that we are sleepwalking our way into a dystopian future …
Misinformation and disinformation, the rate at which it is being peddled and believed and shared by a naive global populace is, I think, the biggest threat to democracies around the world.
So, should media literacy be taught in the same way we teach maths? Read the full story here:
Man missing off Queensland island after two people rescued by helicopter
A search and rescue operation is under way to locate a man, missing from a vessel which overturned off Lady Elliot Island near Gladstone in central Queensland, on Sunday morning.
Two people were rescued by helicopter from the water at 10.15am, roughly five hours after the distress signal was sent. They were winched to safety and taken to hospital for treatment.
The search continues for a missing man.
The yacht was approximately four nautical miles south of the island when an emergency beacon was activated at 5am.
It is understood the vessel was travelling from Yeppoon to Brisbane, with three people on board when it upturned.
Police and emergency services began a search and rescue operation involving multiple vessels, police divers and the rescue helicopter.
Experts dispel bird flu concerns
Concerns about the impacts of bird flu outbreaks in Australia and overseas, and rumours of egg shortages are being blown out of proportion, experts have told AAP.
Six Victorian poultry farms have detected cases of avian influenza, sparking fears of egg shortages and mass bird cullings.
The spread of the virus globally has fuelled online conspiracy theories and misinformation about the risks to food supplies and Covid-style lockdowns.
Scientists and industry experts have told AAP FactCheck the risk to human health in Australia remains low and egg shortages are unlikely.
They explain that the more dangerous strain of bird flu (H5N1) spreading in North America and Europe is not the same as the two (H7N3 and H7N9) detected in Victoria.
Australian Chicken Growers Council chief executive Dr Joanna Sillince hosed down claims about potential food shortages:
There is no egg shortage in Victoria. Poultry meat and eggs are perfectly safe to eat.
Prof Marcel Klaassen, a disease ecologist from Deakin University, says the threat to humans is low because of their genetic differences with birds:
Our common ancestor between birds and mammals goes back a long, long time, so it’s not easy for a virus that is specialised for birds to affect humans, or to affect mammals.
Klaassen says the H5N1 strain is “very nasty” but Australia is well positioned to handle any outbreak due to geographic isolation and low migratory bird traffic.
He says wild birds do bring in new strains from overseas but much more incrementally than in the northern hemisphere:
They trickle in, compared to the considerable amount of traffic you have between other continents. So it’s just trickling into Australia. But it’s not said that we are entirely protected from the nasty virus that is now circulating around the globe.
Josh Butler
Labor ‘continuing to consult’ on Makarrata commission, Albanese says
Anthony Albanese says he will attend Arnhem Land’s Garma festival in August to “talk about a way forward” on Indigenous policy after the defeat of the voice referendum, keeping open the prospect of setting up a Makarrata commission to advance truth and treaty processes.
But key advocates for the referendum have urged the government to move more quickly in outlining its new agenda, including honouring Albanese’s election night pledge to implement the Uluru statement from the heart “in full”.
Speaking to Guardian Australia’s podcast, the prime minister said the government was “continuing to consult” on the Makarrata commission, the body envisaged to oversee truth and treaty:
Treaty process is undergoing at the various states and that’s appropriate. With regard to Makarrata, we’re continuing to consult on those issues. said.
Indigenous leaders, of course, were very disappointed by the referendum result. I’ll attend Garma once again this year and sit down with people and talk about a way forward.
One of the things that we wanted to do, the whole point of the voice, was listening to people in communities, rather than people in Canberra making decisions going forward, and that’s what we’ve been doing.
Read the full story here:
Ben Doherty
One of Australia’s enduring mysteries
For two long, lonely decades, Rosalind Wright has not stopped searching for answers about what happened to her lost daughter.
“I lost a part of myself when Amber went missing,” she said years after her daughter vanished, “not knowing where she is or what happened to her.”
Wright’s daughter, Amber Michelle Haigh, was a 19-year-old new mother when she disappeared without trace from country NSW in June 2002.
One of Australia’s enduring mysteries takes another critical step on Monday when two people face trial for her murder in a judge-alone trial before Justice Julia Lonergan in Wagga Wagga.
Robert Samuel Geeves, 64 and his wife, Anne Margaret Geeves, 63, now of Murrumburrah, each face one charge of murder in the NSW supreme court. They have pleaded not guilty.
Read Ben Doherty’s feature article about Amber Haigh, before new Guardian Australia podcast Who Cared? The disappearance of Amber Haigh, which launches on 22 June. Each Saturday Doherty will speak to Bridie Jabour about the key witnesses and evidence in the trial. Find all the episodes on the Full Story podcast feed
Climate wars reignited
The brief reprieve we thought we might have from the climate wars seems to have come crashing to an end this week after Peter Dutton said the Coalition would not name its 2030 emissions reduction target before the next election.
His Liberal and National party colleagues have enthusiastically backed this decision to decline to tell voters their plans before voting day.
But this has not always been Coalition policy.
Dutton and the Coalition had a decidedly different stance before the 2022 election, goading Labor – then in opposition – for not naming their proposed emissions reduction goal. Labor did name its target well before that election, in December 2021 committing to a 43% cut by 2030.
Josh Butler has this helpful reminder of what the Coalition has previously said about climate targets and detailed plans, and what they are saying now.
Wong labels Greens allegations Australia is selling weapons to Israel ‘reprehensible’
Penny Wong has been asked about whether Australia is selling weapons to Israel, in breach of an international arms trade treaty, as the Greens have repeatedly alleged.
Wong says these allegations by the Greens are being used to “incite conflict in Australia”, which she calls “reprehensible”.
This has been one of the most heavily contested areas of political debate in Australia’s response to the war in Gaza.
The Greens have repeatedly demanded that the Australian government “immediately stop military exports to Israel”. The Greens senator David Shoebridge told 2HD radio last week: “To Australia’s shame, we continue to export weapons parts and weapons to Israel.”
The government, however, has stated emphatically that Australia is not exporting weapons or ammunition to Israel, and has ramped up accusations that the Greens have been spreading “misinformation”.
Speaking today, Wong says:
I think that the Greens propaganda about this has been so irresponsible and you really can’t come to any other conclusion than they are using misinformation in order to, frankly, incite conflict in Australia. And I think that is really reprehensible.
We haven’t exported weapons to Israel, either since the conflict began. Secondly, you know, we have, as defence estimates made very clear, we have calibrated our approach to ensure that what we have in terms of arms permits, is material that comes back to Australia for, you know, law enforcement, or for the ADF capability.
This is a very fraught and contested issue, our foreign affairs and defence correspondent Daniel Hurst has written this very helpful explainer on the topic.
Panda watch
On the key question of whether Adelaide zoo will be getting more pandas, Penny Wong is keeping her cards close to her chest:
Well, my family, like many other South Australian families, have enjoyed the pandas over many years … We look forward to that continuing. Obviously I can’t make announcements ahead of time, but I will be heading to the zoo.
Well, you can draw your own conclusions from that, but let’s just say she’s not dampening panda expectations …
‘The world does look to China’: Wong on Ukraine war
While the relationship with China is improving, Penny Wong is being challenged on the points of difference between Australia and China, particularly on foreign policy and defence matters.
On Taiwan:
I would say on Taiwan, and this is one of the riskiest flashpoints in the world. We are deeply concerned about the increased activities and the risk of miscalculation, the risk of mistake. And that is a view we’ve put publicly and we have put directly to China.
On the suspended death sentence handed to Australian citizen Yang Hengjun in China:
I’m easily constrained for privacy reasons on what I can say in a television interview. What I would say to you is … [the government] will continue to advocate for, wherever we are able, for Dr Yang. And we will continue to advocate including for appropriate medical treatment.
On Ukraine:
In the period after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine I said the world does look to China which has a special responsibility as a great power and a permanent member of the security council to use its influence to end this war.
We have expressed concerns similar to those expressed by the G7 about potential activities of Chinese firms and we will continue to express to China our views about the importance of the war ending and Ukraine being able to secure peace on its own terms.
Abandoning 2030 climate target means ‘abandoning our neighbours in the Pacific,’ minister says
On the topic of the Pacific, Penny Wong says that it would cost Australia strategically in the Pacific if Peter Dutton were to abandon Australia’s 2030 climate target, as he said this week that the Coalition would do.
It is … him yet again abandoning the field in the Pacific. I still get when I move around the Pacific people remembering him joking about climate change by talking about water lapping at the door of Pacific nations. People still remember that.
That is, apart from being not a very decent thing to say, it is also a diminution of Australia’s influence … in the region.
Abandoning climate change means higher prices at home and it means yet again it means he is abandoning our neighbours in the Pacific.
Australia in ‘permanent contest’ with China in the Pacific, Wong says
The foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, is joining Insiders. She met the Chinese premier, Li Qiang, at Adelaide airport yesterday and will be joining him for lunch at an Adelaide winery today.
Wong says the goal is to “stabilise the relationship” between China and Australia:
This is obviously a really important visit, it is the first visit in seven years by the Chinese premier and it comes after two years of very deliberate, very patient work by this government to bring about a stabilisation of the relationship and to work towards the removal of trade impediments.
But she acknowledged points of tension between the two countries and said the reality was Australia was now in “a permanent contest” with China in the Pacific.
The reality is Mr Dutton and the Coalition abandoned the field in the Pacific and others have filled that space. We are now in a position where Australia is a partner of choice but the opportunity to be the only partner of choice has been lost by Mr Dutton and his colleagues and we are in a state of permanent contest in the Pacific.
That is the reality. I wish there was a rewind button to recover the last 10 years but we don’t, we have to deal with what we have now which is a permanent contest in Pacific.
Man accused of murder of Sydney surfer
A man has been charged after a three-month investigation into the alleged killing of a popular Sydney surfer, AAP reports.
Guy Haymes, or “Creature”, as friends knew him, was found by emergency services in a Manly unit with serious head injuries after a triple-zero call about a disturbance in the complex on 27 February.
The 59-year-old was treated at the scene but died in hospital a fortnight later.
Police arrested a 41-year-old man in Greenacre on Saturday night and later charged him with murder, two counts of taking or detaining a person with intent to obtain advantage, and taking or detaining a person with intent to obtain advantage occasioning actual bodily harm.
He will face Parramatta local court on Sunday.
Haymes, who lived in Brookvale, was described as a fun-loving and sociable uncle by his brother during a public appeal to find his killer.
He was well known in the Sydney surfing community and a paddle-out in his memory is being planned at North Avalon.
Welcome
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the day’s news.
Li Qiang continues his visit of Australia today, having touched down yesterday in Adelaide.
This is the first visit by a Chinese premier in seven years, after diplomatic tensions ratcheted up under the previous government. But yesterday Li said relations between the two countries were “back on track after a period of twists and turns”.
The four-day visit, which will also take in Western Australia and Canberra, is expected to pave the way for President Xi Jinping’s first journey to Australia since 2014.
Li is expected to visit Adelaide zoo today, which is the home to Fu Ni and Wang Wang, two giant pandas now on loan to the zoo from China.
The pandas were lent to Adelaide zoo in 2009 and are the only giant pandas in the southern hemisphere. But, after failing to breed in more than a decade in Australia, it is expected that they will soon be on their way back to China.
The Chinese government is expected to announce that they will soon be replaced by a new duo, which would be a further sign of thawing tensions between Australia and China. “Panda diplomacy” is a key initiative of Chinese foreign policy and a way of signalling which countries are in its good books. Anthony Albanese has remarked that his government is “pro-panda”.
The climate wars look set to be top of the agenda today on Insiders, after a week in which it became clear the Australia’s climate wars were far from over.
Peter Dutton announced this week that the Coalition would not back the country’s 2030 emissions reduction target at the next election:
I’m not going to sign up to an arrangement that destroys our economy and sends families and small businesses into bankruptcy.
Graham Readfearn has written a terrific piece, interviewing five climate elders about their anger and disappointment at the Coalition’s position, saying it would damage Australia’s economy and international reputation.
Penny Wong is joining Insiders today – we imagine this issue might come up.