Are the Giants less ‘clown show’ than the Jets? It’s getting harder to tell: Sando’s Pick Six

The New York Jets’ roots as a brash and unapologetic upstart, cemented by Joe Namath’s Super Bowl III bravado, differentiated them from the old-guard New York Giants for decades.

When the Jets had bombastic and playful Rex Ryan as their coach, the Giants had stern taskmaster Tom Coughlin.

When the Jets were going all-in on the polarizing Aaron Rodgers, the Giants were hoping the fifth and sixth seasons of nice guy Daniel Jones might turn out differently.

If the Jets aspired to be cryptocurrency, the Giants hoped to be the S&P 500. What’s the difference when both are competitively bankrupt?

The Pick Six column leads this week by examining how the Giants resemble the Jets, in results if not always process. If Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield mocking Giants fill-in Tommy DeVito during a 30-7 Buccaneers rout at MetLife Stadium helped drive home the point, great, but the evidence has been accumulating for years. The full Pick Six menu this week:

• No difference between Jets, Giants?
• Can Eagles threaten Lions atop NFC?
• Great week for Bills, not Chiefs
• Surviving the Will Levis roller coaster
• Should a HOF coach win most of time?
• 2-minute drill: Roman and Lamar

1. What is the difference between the ‘clown show’ Jets and classy Giants again? Do not look for it in the standings.

Daniel Jones’ recent farewell speech and the Giants’ decision to grant the quarterback’s request for his release reflected the latest major failure for an organization with two winning records over its past 12 seasons. But, as reaction after reaction after reaction after reaction noted, this latest failure was handled in a “classy” manner.

The Jets, meanwhile, give off “clown show” vibes even while having a (slightly) better record this season, and a similar record over the past dozen (Giants are 69-120-1, Jets are 66-124).

What’s the difference between the Giants and Jets again?

“The difference is, the Giants have won championships and have done so most recently (2007, 2011), so they have the most credibility capital to burn,” a coach from another team said. “That is all. They are burning through it.”

If that credibility didn’t run out when DeVito was promoted ahead of Drew Lock, who had been the backup to Jones all season, how about when the Giants fell behind Tampa Bay 23-0 at halftime and 30-0 through three quarters?

What about after the game, when rookie Malik Nabers, who wears jersey No. 1 after the Giants got permission from Hall of Famer Ray Flaherty’s heirs to use the long-retired number, called the team “soft as f—“? Or when star nose tackle Dexter Lawrence conceded the Bucs “beat the s—” out of the Giants?

“They beat the shit out of us today”

DL Dexter Lawrence on the “soft” #Giants pic.twitter.com/zvEDjSCpA3

— Connor Hughes (@Connor_J_Hughes) November 24, 2024

These quotes could have been coming from the Jets’ locker room just as easily, except the team had a bye amid reports the relationship between Rodgers and owner Woody Johnson was strained.

While the Jets have chased aging legends in Rodgers and Brett Favre, the Giants were slow to move on from highly drafted homegrown quarterbacks in Eli Manning and Jones. Those are differences, but what played out at the position this past week felt similar.

Johnson, per The Athletic’s Zack Rosenblatt and Dianna Russini, suggested to Jets coaches after four games that the team should bench Rodgers. He fired coach Robert Saleh a week later without consulting general manager Joe Douglas, per the report.

More recently, the Giants promoted DeVito over $5 million backup Lock as Jones’ replacement, which made zero sense unless DeVito’s popularity among some fans was a factor.

“That move made less sense than anything that has happened in the league this season,” one exec said.

How could a team make such a move? Well …

Giants owner John Mara previously lamented losing star running back Saquon Barkley to the rival Philadelphia Eagles in free agency because, in Mara’s words, Barkley was “the most popular player we have, by far.” To what degree was player popularity a factor in DeVito over Lock?

“It has to be the owner trying to drum up some local support playing off of last year’s success,” an offensive coach said. (The Giants’ defense was primarily responsible for the three victories DeVito started in 2023.)

If Mara influenced the DeVito decision, it’s bad. If the football people made it on their own, that might be worse.

Seven years ago, then-coach Ben McAdoo benched Manning in favor of Geno Smith when the Giants were 2-9, ending Manning’s streak of 210 consecutive regular-season starts (the third-longest streak in NFL history). Mara fired McAdoo and GM Jerry Reese the day after Smith lost his first start. Manning was reinstated as the starter. Smith never again played for the Giants. He later emerged as a productive starter for Seattle — better than any Giants starter since then, for sure.

Lock might or might not be another Smith, but the next coach or executive who thinks DeVito has a future as a starter will be the first I’ve encountered. The Giants finished Sunday with 245 yards — 10 fewer than Barkley gained on the ground (and 57 fewer than he gained in total) for Philadelphia on Sunday night — against a Tampa Bay defense that had allowed 425 per game over its previous six.

Despite all that, every logical football person would rather work for Mara than for the Jets’ Johnson. As one exec put it, “Mara, I respect. He might make his thoughts known, but I haven’t seen evidence he forces it. I think you could talk to him and make things make sense. Woody and his crew? Who knows? They might just do something on their own. That is scary.”

Even so, the Giants’ winning percentage (.457) since John Mara succeeded his late father, Wellington, as owner during the 2005 season ranks 22nd among win rates for all current owners since each took control. The Jets’ Johnson ranks 23rd with a .430 win rate since purchasing his team in 2000.

What’s the difference between the Giants and Jets again?

Not as much as the Giants’ two Super Bowl victories this century (with two wild-card teams that got hot) suggest.

Wellington Mara was the owner of record when the team hired Coughlin and traded for Manning on draft day in 2004. The Giants are 50-91-1 (.356) since Coughlin departed. That ranks 30th in the NFL.

“What we are watching (with the Giants) is, Paul Brown passes the Bengals to Mike Brown (in 1991) and all mayhem breaks out,” a veteran coach said.

One difference is that the Giants had Coughlin and Manning for roughly a decade after their ownership was passed to the next generation in 2005. In Cincinnati, those early 1990s Bengals teams were already transitioning away from their Super Bowl coach, Sam Wyche, and their Super Bowl quarterback, Boomer Esiason. They fell off faster.

The Giants are the ones free-falling now. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars (.338) and Jets (.310) have worse records since Coughlin resigned under pressure following the 2015 season.

What’s the difference between the Giants and Jets again?

The Giants do not have to worry about Mara landing his helicopter on the practice field and summoning their GM to the office for his firing, as Fox’s Jay Glazer reported Johnson did with Douglas last week (see video below at the one-minute mark).

The Inside Scoop with @JayGlazer! 👏

Jay breaks down what is going on with the 49ers, Giants and more!! pic.twitter.com/2kW0tOa155

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 24, 2024

The differences do not show up in how these teams have hired.

Mara and Johnson have combined to hire 13 head coaches (including interim coaches). The only one with a winning record during his tenure was Al Groh, who went 9-7 in his lone season with the Jets (2000).

Mara’s hires have a combined 50-91-1 (.356) record. Based on this, the team should put Coughlin (.531) in its Ring of Honor a second time.

*Interim

Johnson’s hires have a combined 171-227 (.430) record — bad, but not as bad as Mara’s hires.

*Interim

“It seems like the Jets are in disarray and the Giants are the prideful heirs to a great legacy,” a defensive coach said. “In reality, neither makes a lot of good decisions.”

Nearly a quarter-century after the Jets were rebuffed by Bill Belichick, only to settle for Groh, rumors persist that the Giants could bring back Belichick, their former defensive coordinator under Bill Parcells. Belichick passed up the Jets over what he called at the time “various uncertainties” regarding ownership shortly before Johnson purchased the team in 2000. There can be no uncertainties about Giants ownership now. It needs help.

2. The Philadelphia Eagles have won their past seven games and seem to be gaining momentum. Can they seriously threaten the Detroit Lions in the NFC?

After watching Barkley and the Eagles dominate the Los Angeles Rams 37-20, NBC’s Cris Collinsworth declared Philadelphia a team that could win it all.

The Athletic’s playoff model agrees, with a caveat. The model sees the Lions as about twice as likely to win the Super Bowl, 21 percent to 11 percent.

GO DEEPER

NFL playoff projections 2024: Can Eagles overtake Lions for top seed in NFC?

How do NFL insiders see it?

“One game, head to head, yes, the Eagles could win, but if they played five games, Philly would lose at least three of them, maybe four of them,” an NFC coach whose team faced the Eagles said.

Another assistant from the NFC called the gap between the Lions and Eagles “substantial” even though a single game separates them in the conference standings.

“I don’t know if I trust Philly still,” he said. “There is something about if (Jalen) Hurts gets behind and they have to throw. Now, the defensive turnaround has been enormous for them.”

This was not a consensus view.

“I don’t think the Eagles are far behind because, with Saquon Barkley, they can run it on anybody,” an NFC exec said. “That would be a really good game. I don’t think the gap is as big as some think it is. Vic Fangio’s defense can be a little tricky, but I think they are buying in. They seem to be getting it, making calls, making adjustments.”

The Lions, Eagles and Packers are the only teams ranked among the NFL’s top 10 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball, led by Detroit (second on offense, third on defense), per TruMedia.

Two execs thought Green Bay was the NFC team most likely to threaten the Lions or Eagles.

“I like Jordan Love,” one of them said. “Something makes him short-circuit still, and that is just a growing pain you are going to have to live with. It’s like some of the stuff Josh Allen went with early on.”

The second exec questioned Minnesota because of Sam Darnold.

“I don’t see anyone else in Detroit’s category,” he said. “I don’t trust Darnold. I would say Green Bay because of their overall talent, and because I trust Matt LaFleur and I trust their playoff performance last year.”

The table below stacks all NFC teams by percent chance of reaching the playoffs, according to the model.

3. The Kansas City Chiefs won Sunday, but it felt like they lost. The Buffalo Bills did not play, but it felt like they won. Here’s why the Chiefs should be worried.

Bills coach Sean McDermott holds the NFL’s best regular-season record among head coaches (14-2) since an investigative report published Dec. 7, 2023 painted McDermott as an obstacle the organization had to overcome in order to win.

The three-part series by NFL writer Tyler Dunne for his “Go Long” website featured devastating testimonials from anonymous McDermott associates.

“This job’s too hard to fight from within and that’s what you do there,” one of the sources said. “You’ve got to overcome the head coach.”

McDermott’s intensity and its potential negative effects were something I’d explored earlier last season when suggesting the team needed its coach to find a new gear. The criticisms aligned with the Bills’ late-game struggles in pressure situations, but if we’re going to question McDermott when it appears his team might be on the verge of crumbling, we should appreciate the successes when things appear to be operating smoothly.

Could this season be going much better for the Bills? They are 9-2 and riding a six-game winning streak after handling the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. They’ll come out of their bye with a home game against the depleted 5-6 San Francisco 49ers.

GO DEEPER

Reassessing AFC contenders: Bills the best? How dangerous are the Steelers? Sando’s Pick Six

Drama? There seems to be none in Buffalo.

“The coach and GM (Brandon Beane) had the foresight to get rid of the receiver (Stefon Diggs) because they knew it was detrimental to the quarterback and the atmosphere,” a coach from another team said. “All of sudden, they are playing with Curtis Samuel and draft picks and just whatever, and the quarterback is playing good. And then they add Amari Cooper.”

Any Bills fan watching the Chiefs struggle to a 30-27 victory over the Carolina Panthers on Sunday has to like Buffalo’s prospects in a potential playoff rematch.

Against Carolina, Kansas City suffered its 10th-worst defensive EPA performance (-13.2) in 72 regular-season and playoff games since 2021, per TruMedia. The chart below identifies the Carolina game. The Bills’ offense is responsible for five of the Chiefs’ 18 worst defensive EPA games since 2021. Those games appear via blue dots.

Buffalo’s offense has averaged 11.3 EPA per game in the six most recent matchups, including playoffs, with Kansas City dating to 2021. Only 12 teams since 2000 have averaged 11.3 or better over a full season. The Bills’ offense has performed better across these six games against Kansas City than it has performed, on average, against the NFL’s other 30 defenses over the same period.

The production has remained steady across three Bills offensive coordinators even as the Chiefs’ defense has improved.

We do not yet know whether the Bills and Chiefs will meet again in the playoffs. If they do, the focus should be on what the Chiefs’ defense can do to stop Buffalo from producing even better against Kansas City than it produces against the other 30 teams. That seemed especially true Sunday after the Panthers nearly outscored Kansas City.

“I don’t see how Buffalo melts down unless they have a ton of injuries,” an exec said. “I’m not sure what the catalyst has been, except that maybe they have been off everybody’s radar long enough, and the offseason did not target them as much, and they are clearly operating better in those conditions than having the spotlight on them.”

4. Titans coach Brian Callahan loved how quarterback Will Levis played Sunday. It was a performance for the ages, in a way.

Will Levis took eight sacks and threw a pick six for the Tennessee Titans against the Houston Texans.

According to Pro Football Reference, which has unofficial sack data since 1960 (sacks became official in 1982), this was the 36th time since then that an NFL quarterback checked both those dubious boxes — at least eight sacks, at least one pick six — in the same game.

Here’s the deal: Levis was already on the list, despite Sunday marking only his 17th career start. He took eight sacks and threw a pick six in a 30-14 defeat to Green Bay in Week 3.

The difference Sunday was that Levis’ Titans won the game. Levis played a positive role in the outcome as well, completing 18 of 24 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns. But the Titans’ 32-27 victory over the Texans was an outlier among outliers. Starting quarterbacks are now 3-33 (.083) since 1960 when taking eight sacks and having an interception returned for a touchdown.

Levis is the only quarterback to appear twice on the list. His penchant for taking sacks was already on my radar entering Week 12. I’d been looking for any statistical category for Levis that correlated with Tennessee winning. The answer was clear: Levis’ sack EPA was the key. His ratio of sack EPA in victories versus defeats was the most lopsided through any quarterback’s first 16 starts since 2007, per TruMedia.

That changed Sunday when the Titans lost 10.8 EPA on his sacks but still won the game.

The table below stacks Levis’ starts from best to worst sack EPA. The correlation with winning is stark.

Why so many sacks?

“I don’t think he’s naturally instinctive,” an offensive coach who studied quarterbacks in the 2023 draft said. “Bad things happen as a result.”

Callahan, who raised some eyebrows by using the word “dumb” to characterize a Levis fumble against the Jets in his Week 2 postgame news conference, sounded much different Sunday.

“I thought he played for the most part fantastic, particularly in the first half,” Callahan said. “You throw interceptions sometimes. To see him come back and fight was great. But I really was happy with the way he played. He put some great balls down the field. He did some really nice things and he protected the ball well outside the interception. That is what quarterbacking looks like.”

5. Should a Hall of Fame coach have a winning record most of the time?

The 29 coaches already enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame had winning records in 71 percent of their combined seasons.

No current coach with at least seven qualifying seasons in the role has posted winning records as frequently as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Mike Tomlin, whose 15 in 17 seasons equates to an 88.2 percent rate (one more victory this season will get him to 88.9 percent).

McDermott, Kansas City’s Andy Reid and Jacksonville’s Doug Pederson have already won or lost enough games for the 2024 season to qualify in their totals. The other coaches in the table below could still have winning or losing records this season, so 2024 was excluded for them.

The subject is topical because the Pro Football Hall of Fame plans to announce on Dec. 3 which retired coach will advance from the semifinalist to finalist round, a big step toward enshrinement.

I recently joined eight other members of the Hall of Fame Blue-Ribbon Committee in discussing and voting on the semifinalists: Tom Coughlin, Mike Holmgren, Dan Reeves, Chuck Knox, Marty Schottenheimer, George Seifert and Mike Shanahan among long-time head coaches, plus Clark Shaughnessy (primarily an assistant) and Bill Arnsparger (exclusively an assistant). We do not yet know which coach will advance.

These are fun candidacies to think through. I lean toward asking the most basic questions. How frequently does a head coach win? How consistently does the coach win when he changes organizations? How about when he changes starting quarterbacks? Does he take his teams to Super Bowls? Has he won a championship? How many?

George Allen, John Madden and Vince Lombardi are the only Hall of Fame coaches to produce winning records at a higher rate than Tomlin has produced them. They combined for 30 winning records in 30 seasons before the salary cap promoted parity.

The table below shows Allen, Madden and Lombardi leading the way among the 29 Hall of Fame coaches. I’ve slotted in the seven longtime head coaches who are Hall semifinalists this year.

This is only one lens through which to view coaches. In general, the lower a coach resides on that list, the more I think he needs special achievements for enshrinement (example: Marv Levy taking the Buffalo Bills to four consecutive Super Bowls). Dick Vermeil and Weeb Ewbank are the only Hall of Famers with winning records in less than half their seasons as head coaches.

6. Two-minute drill: Harbaugh Bowl is about more than that

While the Monday night game between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers focuses a spotlight on the Harbaugh brothers, that is not the only storyline.

The game also brings together Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and his former longtime offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, who now serves in that role with the Chargers.

Lamar Jackson with a long hesitation when asked how he’d characterize his time with his former offensive coordinator Greg Roman pic.twitter.com/1WpnS5OaWC

— Sarah Ellison (@sgellison) November 21, 2024

While Roman’s offense played a role in Jackson becoming a dual-threat star right away, the way Jackson smiled and paused when asked about his former coordinator during the week played into the idea that change was needed in Baltimore for the quarterback to take another step in his development.

“You have to develop your running quarterback into a passer at some point or you hit a ceiling,” a veteran offensive coach said. “You have to recognize that and make a move when you can, when you think you can hit it.”

Jackson’s production has returned to what it was at his best under Roman, except he’s been more productive as a passer, and less productive as a runner.

Some might have read Jackson’s response as an indictment of his former coordinator, but the situation could be more nuanced than that.

The relationship between Jackson and the Ravens seemed to deteriorate through the pandemic and what turned into a tense standoff regarding a new contract. Roman left the team in January 2023, when that relationship still seemed strained. The sides worked through those issues over a three-month period before reaching a $260 million contract extension.

Roman wasn’t with the Ravens during that time, so he wasn’t part of whatever healing process took place. All parties have moved on, and all seem to be in a better place than they were the last time Jackson and Roman were together on the Ravens.

If Roman’s offense was holding back Jackson, we might expect Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert to bump up against a schematic ceiling at some point.

“They let Herbert run wild throwing the ball earlier in his career, and it didn’t work,” the offensive coach said. “Now, they have reined him in. Herbert has to take a step back for the good of the organization, and within it, he has to grow and come out the other side. You hope there is enough balance over time.”

• Packers roll: The Green Bay Packers’ 38-10 victory over San Francisco at Lambeau Field was about what should have happened without Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa, Trent Williams or Brandon Aiyuk available to the 49ers. Is there much to read into this outcome, beyond the fact that the 49ers are in trouble?

“It’s a combination of injuries and then Kyle Shanahan’s late-game management, blowing all those leads earlier in the season,” an exec said. “They look tired, like Manti Te’o was saying before the season. They had a year like this before (in 2020). I want them to do well because I don’t want to see them get another stud in the draft after a down year.”

• Seahawks D: Seattle won while every other NFC West team lost, and its defense continued its recent improvement under first-year coach Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks rank sixth in defensive EPA per play since Week 9, a span of games against all three NFC West opponents. They held Arizona’s Kyler Murray to the ninth-worst statistical game of his 77-start career by EPA per pass play in the 16-6 victory.

GO DEEPER

Led by ‘f—ing beast’ Leonard Williams, Seahawks’ D smothers Cardinals for NFC West lead

• On Washington: Will allowing two kick-return touchdowns in the fourth quarter and missing an extra point that would have forced overtime during an inexplicable home defeat to the Dallas Cowboys wind up defining this once-promising Commanders season?

It was a wild way to punctuate a three-game losing streak.

A 223-yard fourth quarter padded the Commanders’ offensive stat sheet, but that will not spare offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury from continued questions about staying power over the second halves of seasons. Washington finished with negative offensive EPA (-5.7) for a third consecutive game, all defeats, after enduring only one such game in the first nine weeks.

• Better late than never: Dallas, for all its struggles, is the only team to score more than 17 points in the final 9:00 of regulation this season. The Cowboys have done it twice (19 against Baltimore, 24 against Washington).

• Classic Mayfield: Watch this Baker Mayfield postgame interview and laugh while he sounds like a kid trying to convince his parents he didn’t take the car out the night before. How did he keep a straight face?

“Tribute to Tommy, yeah. He’s a good dude, he’s got swag.”

Baker Mayfield on his celebration referencing Tommy DeVito today: pic.twitter.com/yZQ1TqquG0

— Giants Videos (@SNYGiants) November 24, 2024

(Photo of Tommy DeVito: Elsa / Getty Images)

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