The company is expected to replicate its historical growth rate of 5x to 11GW over FY19-24, which is likely to be led by 30GW/ 11GW installation in Khavda/Rajasthan, where it has access to large resource rich land bank along with evacuation facilities.
“The usage of new age technology and higher share of merchant/C&I power will drive revenue/ EBITDA/PAT at a CAGR of 34%/37%/60% over FY24-30 period. Strategic capital management, equity infusion by promoters/JV partners and healthy OCF negate the risk of equity dilution while maintaining comfortable D/E,” said Investec in its report.
Investec also believes that the adoption of new age technology (N-Type bifacial modules + trackers) in resource rich sites like Khavda and Rajasthan will ensure higher capacity utilixation factor (CUF) across stations (solar – 30%, wind – 33% & hybrids – 43%). This coupled with a higher share of merchants (15% – FY30 vs 5% – FY24) will drive 60% CAGR of PAT over FY24-30E.
Backed by this, the global brokerage firm had valued AGEL at 15x FY30E EBITDA, (adjusting for the FY29E net debt, minority interest and discounted at 12% for 3 years) to arrive at their target price.
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Shares of Adani Green were also in focus on Monday’s session following reports that the company along with Adani Power had received letters of intent from Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company (MSEDCL) for the supply of 6600 MW hybrid solar and thermal power.
Under the deal, Adani Green will supply 5 GW (5000 MW) solar power from Khavda while Adani Power will supply 1,496 MW (net) thermal power from the new 1600 MW ultrasupercritical capacity.
Meanwhile, the shares of AGEL were trading nearly 1% higher at Rs 1,948.45 on the BSE around 12 noon on Monday.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)