As the traders pack up under the striped awnings of the market stalls in the centre of Alford, east Lincolnshire, Matthew Warner is loading balls of wool from his family shop into the back of his car.
Warner, a father of two, is feeling a serious strain on the family finances from fuel prices and childcare, and his wife cannot work full-time hours as a nurse because of the costs. A longtime Tory voter, the 33-year-old is still undecided on who he will vote for on Thursday, but he says he is now attracted by Nigel Farage’s Reform party, who are making significant inroads in seats like this.
Alford is in the heart of one of the safest Tory constituencies, Louth and Horncastle, but the race is a near-perfect encapsulation of the battle for the soul of the Conservative party.
Its MP is Victoria Atkins, the health secretary, a key figure in the party’s moderate wing and a champion of Rishi Sunak. Her Reform opponent, Sean Matthews, is a retired police officer and was previously a local Tory branch chair who quit the party in protest over its removal of Liz Truss and installation of Sunak.
Like many voters in the market towns of this constituency, Warner says he believes it is time for a change after 14 years, having voted Tory at every election. “Nigel is standing out to us more than any other,” he said, though he is dismissive of all the other main parties. However, he says ultimately that he does not trust Reform – or any other party – to make a difference to the struggles of ordinary people.
“I’ve voted Tory all my life, but they’ve dug their own pit,” said Mick, 60, chatting to a customer in the market square. Reform, he said, “are daring to say the things people are thinking” and he calls Starmer’s Labour “despicable”.
But Janet Spridgen, 81, sitting in the sunshine outside the hardware store with her dog Nimo, said she would vote Conservative and had a quiet faith there was still a lot of local support for the Tories. “It has always been Tory here,” she said. “You only have to look at the houses – it’s well-to-do, posh houses. They will always vote Tory.”
Louth and Horncastle is a long shot for Reform, although at least one poll has predicted that it will be among a clutch of seats that go to Farage’s party. It is one of England’s largest constituencies, with limited transport connections between its small towns and villages.
Among Tory candidates in rural, Brexit-leaning seats like this, there are fevered whispers that Reform is considerably exceeding expectations. “It’s real,” said one Tory strategist. “There are a lot more seats than we thought that are very close.”
Speaking to the Guardian, Atkins was prepared to take on the argument over Reform’s values and the significant controversy generated by the party – including anundercover Channel 4 documentary which showed activists using racist and homophobic language.
Atkins said some of the views of Reform party activists “will horrify local residents … these views are not the views of my constituents, and they’re not certainly Conservative views. I find what I’ve read of some of the reports in the papers utterly abhorrent, and I don’t think [it] should have any place in our democracy.
“But what I’m trying to do is focus on what I’ve provided for the constituency in the last nine years, and just the pleasure of working with local residents, securing our schools, our healthcare and protecting our rural way of life.”
Atkins has long been talked about in Tory circles as a future leader from the one-nation wing of the party. Although boundaries have shifted, the seat has been Conservative since 1924 and Atkins has a huge 28,868 majority, taking over 72% of the vote.
With her profile as health secretary, she is a well-known figure in the constituency, twice stopped by residents in the market town of Louth to wish her luck. She proudly points out a new hipster coffee shop and gelateria, a previously empty shopfront that the owner has restored.
But her national profile has also meant some voters feel left behind. Louise Davies, 54, a businesswoman and magistrate, said she would not vote for the Conservatives for the first time since 1997 – she had voted once for Tony Blair’s Labour. Like many residents, she says the area is deprived of critical NHS services. “I waited four months for an appointment, drove 50 minutes to Lincoln and the clinic was closed,” she said.
She is also concerned about the local high street. “We have a lot of tourism round here and we ought to be capitalising on what people want – restaurants, country pubs.” Davies prefers the independent candidate Paul Hugill.
Matthews, exiting the hustings on his way to another event with farmers, said he had decided to join Reform on the day Sunak became PM. “He was foisted on the party – and he’s been foisted on the country.”
Like many Reform candidates, Matthews has found his social media activity under the spotlight, including climate sceptic posts on X, saying “man-made CO2” had “nothing” to do with the climate crisis.
Matthews said that voters were not dissuaded by exposures of controversial posts by him and other candidates. “They see [the attack] for what it is: a tactic,” he said. “Come Friday night we are going to be celebrating with a lot of seats.”
A key part of Matthews’ campaign is the other major battleground in the constituency and one that will seem obscure in the Westminster bubble – the installation of new pylons across the Lincolnshire countryside which has sparked mass uproar, a common theme in rural Tory constituencies across the nation.
In the centre of Louth, Dawn Wrigley, 35, is frustrated with opportunities for younger people and the lack of transport infrastructure. But like many others, she is concerned about the pylons and says it is something that is deeply troubling for her dad, who is likely to vote Reform.
“There are so many Facebook pages telling us about it – places where it’s polluting the landscape,” she says. She says she has no plans to vote at all. “They don’t listen. They lie.”
Atkins’ social media feed is also awash with responses on pylons – a promised review is in the Tory manifesto – and has she said she would fight their introduction locally, as well as blocking solar farms. Even the Labour candidate, Jonathan Slater, has pledged he will fight the new pylons. “Our message here is it cannot be done without community consent,” he said.
Slater says the party has been fighting a door-to-door campaign. Though central party efforts are focused on regaining nearby Lincoln and Grimsby, a poll on Tuesday suggested that Labour could be on course to win the seat.
“On Friday there could be a really significant Labour presence from rural Britain – we can be a powerful lobby within the PLP – and that can have huge impact on the government,” Slater said. “My message to voters has been that Labour will be in power – I’m the MP who would get things done, whether it’s talking to Wes Streeting about healthcare or Rachel Reeves on investment.”
In a sidestreet off Louth’s Cornmarket, Janina, 73, says she will vote Labour, but says most people she has spoken to are worried about Labour’s tax plans. “I’m telling them, you’re worried about tax when you can’t get a dentist?”, she adds.