In 18 of the past 20 seasons at least one top-10 team from the preseason Associated Press Top 25 poll ended its season unranked.
Here are the three teams most likely to suffer that fate this season.
No. 4 Texas
Two weeks ago, the Longhorns looked like a force to be reckoned with in their SEC debut season. But since July 30, two of Texas’ top running backs (CJ Baxter and Christian Clark) suffered season-ending injuries, threatening to make this the first season since 2010 that it becomes victim of the top-10 “curse.”
Redshirt junior quarterback Quinn Ewers has a difficult task leading an offense without its full weaponry into a gauntlet of a schedule that features four teams in the preseason AP top 25 — two of them top-10 opponents (No. 9 Michigan, No. 16 Oklahoma, No. 1 Georgia and No. 20 Texas A&M).
The absence of the two RBs also puts plenty of pressure on Texas’ defense, which ranked 34th in yards allowed per game (336.7) last season.
Unless it wins at No. 9 Michigan (Sept. 7) and at home against No. 1 Georgia (Oct. 19), Texas may find itself in free fall a year removed from its first College Football Playoff appearance.
No. 6 Mississippi
Mississippi is ranked its highest in the preseason poll since 1970, when it started No. 5. Fifth-year head coach Lane Kiffin has a cushy first five games before Ole Miss plays at No. 13 LSU on Oct. 12.
From that point forward, the schedule does not get easier for Mississippi, which hosts No. 16 Oklahoma the next week and No. 1 Georgia two weeks after that. Kiffin’s team will finish the season at Florida and then home for the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State.
Three losses to ranked teams, especially by less than a touchdown, would probably still keep Mississippi on the fringe of the Top 25. But any combination that involves a loss to an unranked foe risks dropping Mississippi out of the Top 25 by the end of the season.
No. 7 Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish were victimized by the “curse” in 2016 and could be in danger of falling victim again this season. As an independent, Notre Dame has scheduling flexibility, but that double-edged sword leaves them vulnerable.
A Week 1 loss to No. 20 Texas A&M in College Station would put head coach Marcus Freeman and his team on its back foot early. The Fighting Irish’s schedule after that has no ranked opponents to provide redemption until a game at home against No. 10 Florida State (Nov. 9) and at No. 23 USC (Nov. 30).
In the meantime, if Notre Dame loses against unranked opponents, it may be scrambling for poll votes and be left out of an at-large bid for the CFP.