infosys shares: Nifty 10% overvalued? Kotak Equities replaces ITC with Infosys in its portfolio

Kotak Institutional Equities has replaced FMCG major ITC with Infosys in its concentrated ‘All-Season’ portfolio. Infosys’ addition for October comes at a time when Kotak’s return expectations over the medium-term horizon of 3-6 months remain muted amid Nifty’s overvaluation and seasonality headwinds.

The October 2023 concentrated All-Season Portfolio consists of Nestle India, Cipla, Bajaj Auto, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), and Infosys. Apart from ITC, NTPC also made an exit from Kotak’s portfolio and was replaced with Cipla.

Kotak in a brokerage note said that the returns from the concentrated All-Season portfolio was 5.5% and it beat one given by the broader Nifty50 in September by 3.5%.

Kotak said that Nifty is 10% overvalued based on the index’s earnings yield as a function of the index’s expected growth, profitability, VIX, and 10-year yield.

The July-September quarter was seasonally weakest in terms of equity market returns in the past 40 years, the note said.

Among other portfolio suites that outperformed the Nifty were ‘Broad All Season’ (4.6%), Concentrated Sentiment (10.2%) and Broad Sentiment (6.5%).

Most stocks in the broad All-Season Portfolio outperformed the Nifty in September.

table1ETMarkets.com

The Concentrated Sentiment Portfolio was the top performer in September, delivering more than 10% returns. “Since we went live in February 2020, Concentrated Sentiment has delivered 41% returns on an annualised basis. The rest of the factors also outperformed in September.

Both the All-Season Portfolios outperformed in September and continue to outperform the index on a risk-adjusted basis, as do all broad single-factor portfolios.

table2ETMarkets.com

The BSE-200 and Nifty optimised momentum portfolios also outperformed their respective benchmarks, returning 4.3% and 4.2%, respectively. While the index volatility and pairwise correlations remain low on an absolute basis, there was a month-on-month increase in pairwise correlations.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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