Stock market decline along with higher rollovers hints towards buildup of short positions, analysts said.
“The higher rollovers along with short buildup suggest that mostly short bets were rolled over and upside in the index may remain capped in the next few days,” said Chandan Taparia, head of technical and derivative research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. “The weak structure in the market could continue until it holds 24,350 levels.”
The NSE Nifty declined 360 points, or 1.5%, to close at 23,914 on Thursday while the BSE Sensex too fell 1.5%, or 1,190 points, to end at 79,043.
The indices have declined over 1% in the November series.
Current Nifty rollovers are higher than 72.9% in the previous expiry and the three-month average of 76.4%, said Rajesh Palviya, head of technical and derivatives research at Axis Securities. He said markets may trade in the range of 23,700-24,400 and it will remain a ‘sell on rise’ mode until Nifty crosses 24,400.Taparia, too, said the Nifty will take support at 23,500 in the coming days. “If the Nifty goes above 24,350, it may turn from a sellers’ market to buyers’ market,” he said.
The market-wide November series rollover stood at 93.67% on Thursday, compared to 91.87% on the previous expiry.
Volatility Index, commonly referred to as the “fear indicator”, was up 3.96% to 15.2 on Thursday, suggesting traders see higher risks in the market in the near term. The index has gone up 6.4% in the past month.
SECTOR & STOCK TRENDS
Palviya said the Bank Nifty has seen unwinding of some positions but bullish bets remain intact and the index may see upwards momentum in the coming days.
“Investors can look at pharmaceuticals, real estate, BFSI (banking, financial services and insurance) and chemicals space in December as they have seen bullish rollovers,” he said.
Taparia said Nifty IT stocks saw a bullish rollover along with banking stocks where 88-90% of positions were carried forward to December.