The annual race to the bottom of the NFL has several participants this season — 11 teams are at three wins or fewer heading into Week 11.
Unlike last year, there is no consensus pot of gold at the other end of the failure rainbow. There are elite players in the 2025 NFL Draft class, to be sure, but none of them play the positions we typically see go No. 1. There isn’t a no-doubt QB; the OT class is thin; the edge group is very raw.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the teams leading the race for the No. 1 overall pick and see what makes the most sense for each of them. Using The Athletic’s NFL projections model, here are the eight teams likeliest to land atop the draft:
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Projected record: 5-12
Don’t rule out Georgia’s Mykel Williams pushing himself past Carter and into the top edge spot before this season’s over — The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has Carter ranked as the No. 3 prospect and Williams No. 8 on his updated 2025 Big Board. However, as it stands now, I’d probably go with Micah Parsons’ understudy in Happy Valley.
The Panthers do not need to select another quarterback with that top pick — should they claim it — because they just did that in 2023. Carolina should work to continue developing Bryce Young and his offensive line while finding ways to add usable skill talent.
Defensively, Carolina has to find a culture. That’s hard to do without any impact players. There aren’t too many no-doubters defensively this year outside of Travis Hunter, but Carter’s a total freak, very young (age 20) and could be a pillar here.
Projected record: 5-12
You have no idea how badly I wanted to write down Malaki Starks name here. New England needs a safety, and Starks is one of the best prospects we’ve seen at that position in a long time. He also can play corner and is hands down the smartest defender in this class. He would change New England’s defense overnight. All that said, the Patriots would also have to explain drafting a safety No. 1 overall.
Campbell, as the best OT in this class, would require less justification. (He also might be a capable guard at the next level, depending on fit and situation.) This isn’t an elite tackle class, but New England could use help in front of Drake Maye.
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Projected record: 5-12
It’s still a back-and-forth thing, for me, right now between Cam Ward and Sanders as QB1 (Brugler’s board has it ranked Ward, Jalen Milroe, Sanders). In such an uncertain QB class, there’s no telling how it will ultimately play out, but Ward and Sanders have been steadily better than the rest of the crop this year. Ward has a better physical frame, but Sanders is closer to being ready for action right now — so long as your team can help him.
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A current pro comp for Sanders might be a more athletic version of Bo Nix. Nix certainly has taken his lumps in Denver, but he’s a very smart processor with good quarterbacking instincts. Sanders is very much in that arena, only with a better arm and more impressive movement skills.
Having a bridge QB on the roster with Sanders would be ideal. But if the Raiders can surround him with a decent infrastructure, he might surprise everyone as a rookie.
Projected record: 5-12
I’m not even going to give the Browns another option, because they’d need to move this pick — even if they can’t land an all-time haul and just drop down a spot or two. The Browns have too many needs in too many areas, plus they are in an absolutely hellacious situation with Deshaun Watson. They cannot add a QB at No. 1 in April, and Campbell is the only OT in this class worth thinking about that high.
Cleveland is back in the first round for the first time since the disastrous Watson trade. Rather than immediately putting themselves back behind the eight ball, the Browns should find a way to cash a (hypothetical) No. 1 pick in for more capital.
Projected record: 5-12
It doesn’t look like Will Levis is the answer to anyone’s prayers, but he’s still only 25 years old and on a cheap contract. The Titans are in a weird spot, though, and it might get worse before it gets better.
A preferable option to going QB at No. 1: finding a decent veteran to compete with Levis while Tennessee builds out the rest of its roster. I’d love to say “draft Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan,” but Tennessee likely needs more than just a WR from a potential top spot.
Hunter, however, is “more than just a wide receiver.”
The Titans are one of the worst teams in football. They also started the year with an older roster, on average, than the Lions, Eagles, Packers and Chiefs. Tackle could also be a choice here, but — again — this might not be the right class to address that spot.
Projected record: 5-12
I’m only going to do this under the condition the Giants sign a bridge quarterback and let Ward sit and learn for a year. I’d say the same if Sanders were the match here. (Could Daniel Jones serve that purpose?)
The Giants, quite frankly, are not a quarterback away from being saved. I’m afraid if they select Ward or Sanders in the top five, they’ll wind up in two years where the Panthers and Colts are now: cold-sweat panicking about why their rookie hasn’t saved them by himself. No quarterback in this class is capable of strapping a team on his back and carrying it next year. If anyone’s hoping for that outcome, they’ll earn what they get.
All that said, Ward has improved every year he’s played — and has jumped up in competition levels multiple times.
There’s no way I’d draft a QB No. 1 this year, but I’m not in charge of a QB-desperate franchise that’s running out of choices.
Projected record: 5-12
We’ll see how things go (and, obviously, this job is still filled for the moment), but the Jaguars get my pre-vote for best opening of the impending 2025 NFL coaching cycle. That’s not just because the new coach would get Trevor Lawrence. There’s also a fair amount of young talent to work with on this roster, and the Jaguars currently have the most 2025 draft capital in the league.
Even though the 2025 draft class doesn’t look elite by any measure, it’s more than enough for the Jaguars — an aimless group that is better than its record — to turn their fortunes.
Hunter, the best college player in America, could help finally give Lawrence a real weapon and/or establish the Jaguars’ defensive culture. It’s a win-win. Easy fit.
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Projected record: 6-11
Talk about a team without a culture — what even are the Saints? Right now, they’re a team with an overpriced, low- to mid-tier starting quarterback surrounded by aging players from a bygone era. They’re also about to be starting over, again. Regardless of the direction this franchise takes with its coach (and perhaps its GM), New Orleans has to get better over the ball, on both sides of the line.
Graham’s ability to control the middle of a defensive front in several different ways from different spots gives off slight reminders of a younger (albeit better) Ndamukong Suh.
Graham’s motor is relentless, his grip strength might crush an apple, and his agility numbers at 320 pounds will be elite come evaluation time. Graham easily could’ve been the guy in high school voted “Most Likely to Wrestle an Actual Bear.”
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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos of Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders and Abdul Carter: Doug Murray, Julio Aguilar, Randy Litzinger / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)