Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) is holding onto a small lead over independent Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate race, according to a new independent survey.
A New York Times/Siena College poll showed that Fischer, a two-term incumbent, is ahead by two percentage points among likely voters — 48 to 46 percent — putting her lead squarely in the margin of error. Five percent of respondents said they were undecided to refused to answer
Fischer’s reelection chances were a foregone conclusion mere months ago in the deep red state. But Osborn has kept the race close, prompting a top outside group to rush into the state with a $3 million ad buy for the final weeks.
Until the Times survey emerged, there had been scant public polling on the race, and private polls from both campaigns showed different views of the race. A recent Fischer internal poll showed that she was up by six percentage points, while one commissioned by Osborn’s team showed him leading by the same margin.
The incumbent senator’s slight lead comes despite former President Trump leading statewide over Vice President Harris by 15 percentage points. In addition, the special election featuring Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) shows him leading Democrat Preston Love by 18 points.
Ricketts departed the governor’s mansion in Lincoln early last year and was almost immediately tapped to fill the vacancy left by Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) in the upper chamber. He is currently running to win the final two years of Sasse’s term, and is expected to run again in 2026 for a full six years.
The battle over Fischer’s seat also suddenly gives Democrats an unexpected pick-up opportunity in a map that has given them precious few chances on that end. The best chance has widely been considered in Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz (R) has consistently held a lead over Rep. Colin Allred (D), though that margin has narrowed in the final month.
The Cook Political Report recently shifted the Nebraska race from “likely” to “lean” Republican.
According to Decision Desk HQ’s latest forecast, Fischer has an 83 percent chance of winning next month.
Despite the recent uptick in financial support on Fischer’s behalf, Osborn and Democratic outside groups are out-spending Republicans in the final stretch. They spent $3.4 million last week compared to $2.6 million on the GOP side.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 23-26 among 1,194 voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.