Let me apologize in advance for cheating a bit.
We use the term “breakout” like it’s just spontaneous combustion, but that’s rarely how it happens. Like most reactions, usually they require a catalyst. Thus, the inherent issue about calling a “breakout” in advance is that often the term isn’t quite what we’re describing. Instead, the real breakout is one of opportunity, in the form of minutes and touches, rather than one of rapidly changing levels of play.
For example, check out last season’s Most Improved Player award winner, the Philadelphia 76ers’ Tyrese Maxey. Yes, he has made steady progress since his rookie year in 2020. But the big change for him last season wasn’t about his own game; it was about the departure of James Harden days into the season. That transaction opened the door for Maxey to become Philly’s primary on-ball initiator, increase his usage rate from 24.1 percent to 28.0 percent and up his scoring rate from 20.3 per game to 25.9.
You’ll find similar storylines littering the field when looking at my All-Breakout squad for this season, consisting of 11 players I think have a chance to significantly boost their production from a year ago.
The story of the greatest players in NBA history. In 100 riveting profiles, top basketball writers justify their selections and uncover the history of the NBA in the process.
The story of the greatest plays in NBA history.
So, back to the cheating — I’ll also note that I cheated a second time since I already have 1/82 of the answers to the test. It’s a little easier to come up with an All-Breakout Team when you already have a peek at how minutes and touches will work for most of these teams after a few days of games.
That said, projecting breakouts can be a bit harder than it looks. Injuries, slumps and our misperceptions caused by our tiny human brains can easily send a potential breakout sideways. Take a gander at last season’s list, for instance.
I had the Most Improved Player (Maxey), but none of the other 13 players who received votes made my list. I had Anthony Edwards, Chet Holmgren and Scottie Barnes on my team, all of whom genuinely broke out … but I also had LaMelo Ball and Mikal Bridges. And then there’s Charlotte’s Mark Williams, who seemed like an easy call 12 months ago. He ended up playing 19 games.
With that said, let me bravely charge ahead into my list for this year. I tried to represent every level of the playing spectrum, so along with a few players who are already big stars, I have some deep cuts in secondary roles.
My 11-man All-Breakout Team for 2024-25:
This isn’t just me riding the wave of Davis’ dominant opening night performance against the Minnesota Timberwolves. He’s low-key been on a heater for the last few months; Davis was one of the most productive players in preseason, even when most veterans throttle down to coasting speed, and was one of the best players on Team USA’s gold-medal winning squad.
Before that, he finished his 2023-24 regular season strong and was fantastic in the Lakers’ five-game, first-round defeat against the Denver Nuggets, averaging 27.8 points on 67 percent shooting and a playoff-leading 15.6 boards. He’s also, thankfully, playing full-time as a center, which is his most productive position even if he doesn’t like it.
Health and shooting will always be the swing variables for Davis, but he’s off to a good start on those fronts as well — he even made an above-the-break 3 in the opener. The bar is high for a “breakout” here, but with 39-year-old LeBron James’ volume possibly on the downslope and few others capable of soaking up the extra chances, this could be a career year for Davis.
GO DEEPER
Anthony Davis gives Lakers an early dose of hope — and a long-awaited blueprint
Dyson Daniels, SG, Atlanta
This one isn’t the usual case of a player breaking out because of an increase in touches and shots. This is a defensive breakout, where Daniels is being thrust into a role as the Hawks’ defensive stopper. He was a force at that end in New Orleans, but his role fluctuated because of a crowded backcourt and his iffy shooting, limiting him to 22 minutes per game across 61 appearances and just 17 total minutes in the playoffs.
That won’t be the case in Atlanta, where the Hawks have been desperate for an elite defender on the perimeter. The 6-foot-8, 21-year-old Daniels is starting and likely will see big minutes as along as his offense is at least somewhat threatening. If so, he has a great chance to lead the league in steals (he had five on opening night and was second in the NBA in steal rate a year ago) and a decent shot at cracking one of the All-Defensive teams.
This one is a pure eye-test call: Williamson finished last season playing the best basketball of his career. He was in the midst of destroying the Lakers in a Play-In game when his hamstring betrayed him. All that seems to have carried over to this year, where he looks fantastic in preseason — statistically, sure, but even more so physically, exploding past people as he did as a rookie and accumulating heaps of layups.
All of this is juiced by his expected positional move to center. Even if it isn’t full-time, he should have enough reps at that spot that he can feast blowing past overmatched centers or compromising defenses as a rim-running screener if they try to match up smaller against him.
Williamson missed the Pelicans’ opener with an illness, but that should be a quick absence. I don’t know exactly how many games we’ll see of this version of him, but I’m excited about the possibility of seeing a full-ish season of peak Williamson. This feels like the season we might get it.
GO DEEPER
What’s behind Zion Williamson’s newfound drive? Trust
Amen Thompson, positionless, Houston
Between Wembymania and Thompson’s early-season injury, the hype machine for the fourth pick in the 2023 draft never really got rolling. I think that might change this year, when Thompson has a greater chance to establish himself as a hybrid center-guard-not-sure-what-to-call-it dynamo who can blow up offenses with his switchy, twitchy athleticism and wreak havoc in transition at the other end.
There are some barriers, as we saw on opening night. Thompson is coming off the bench, and his lack of shooting is exacerbated by a roster that already doesn’t have much reliable spacing. He still has to become a more refined decision-maker to take advantage of his ballhandling and athleticism too. That said, Thompson’s fine rookie season (18.2 PER, 57.6 percent true shooting, mammoth rebound and steal + block rates) largely went under the radar a season ago, and that doesn’t figure to be the case this season on a Houston squad that should be a League Pass favorite.
Giddy only had a lukewarm opener against New Orleans’ feisty wing defenders, but I’ll stay on the bandwagon here. He should fit in his role in Chicago much more easily than he did in Oklahoma City as an on-ball creator with limited shooting gravity. That should provide him more opportunity to grow in some of the other areas (drawing fouls, defense, catch-and-shoots, etc.), where his limitations dragged him down with the Thunder. Additionally, Chicago’s situation should give Giddey a lot more opportunities to play through mistakes and develop on the floor.
Not that he’s chopped liver now. The 22-year-old is a plus passer and rebounder with an excellent floater game and good court vision, and for what it’s worth, he’s also one of the best inbound passers in basketball. That he’s also playing for a contract after he and the Bulls didn’t reach an extension this past week is another reason to believe in him taking a big step up.
GO DEEPER
Why teams held the line at the extension deadline, and which clubs made out best
Just because it’s obvious doesn’t mean it isn’t true. The Thunder badly need a secondary shot creator to step up, especially with the aforementioned Giddey gone, and Williams is the clear candidate to soak up a lot of those touches and shots.
He’s also shown the capability of being a player who can handle that added responsibility efficiently, as he’s proven up to the challenge at each step of his development in his first two seasons with the Thunder. Again, it’s not just about the opportunity here, but about Williams having the talent to sustain a greater role on a winning team. For what it’s worth, Williams was awesome in his four preseason games, with a 30.1 PER on 66.3 percent true shooting.
If a tree falls in the forest and nobody hears, it, does it makes a sound? What if, instead of a forest, it’s Canada?
Barrett was already showing signs of turning a corner last season in New York, then played significantly better after the trade in Toronto. Nobody noticed because it happened in the general destitution of the Raptors’ 2023-24 season, but Barrett is becoming a dude.
In 32 games as a Raptor, Barrett averaged 21.4 points per game and shot 60.5 percent on 2s. The eye test backed it up; there was more comfort and control in the finishing, more nuanced shot selection and distribution and even (gasp) the occasional right-handed attack.
He built on that in the summer by arguably being Canada’s second-best Olympian, averaging 19.8 points on blistering 70.1 percent true shooting. While we didn’t see him in preseason due to a sprained AC joint, he’s listed as day-to-day and expected to rejoin the action soon, so it shouldn’t slow him down too much.
Entering his age-24 season, on a roster with basically four real players and some serious question marks, Barrett should have plenty of room to explore his limits and continue refining his hard-charging downhill game.
Tre Mann makes a move against Miles McBride and the Knicks. (John Jones / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
Mann is single-handedly trying to bring baggy back. Seeing him on the court in his 178-pound frame and size XXXXL jersey and shorts, it looks like one of those in-game promotions where they have kids put on an NBA player’s uniform then run around and try to score a basket.
Mann, however, is pretty good at the latter part. He scored 24 points in Charlotte’s upset of Houston on opening night, continuing a positive stretch of basketball dating to his trade from the Thunder last spring. Mann was one of the league’s most effective players statistically in preseason, which does have some predictive value, and quietly averaged double figures in 28 games for the Hornets at the end of last season.
This was a bit of a surprise, as he had struggled to gain traction for three years in Oklahoma City, and it’s possible his lack of size for a two guard and limited playmaking for a point guard restrict him going forward. As with Giddey above, there’s also a financial incentive. The Hornets could have extended Mann this past week (he’s on the last year of his rookie deal) and instead opted to wait and gather more information.
I’m not even cheating on this one because the Nuggets hadn’t played yet when I wrote this. But Strawther seems to be at the right nexus of opportunity and production. He was eighth in the NBA in preseason scoring, and the Nuggets desperately need him to fill a void in the wing rotation created by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s departure. He also has the specific skill set they most crave, as a high-volume 3-point shooter on a team that was last in 3-point rate a year ago.
Strawther’s rookie season with the Nuggets was mostly spent watching, and his NBA minutes didn’t go all that well with an 8.2 PER and 29.7 percent 3-point shooting. However, the 22-year-old from Gonzaga has thrived in other settings — he’s had two strong summer leagues in addition to his 2024 preseason — and small-sample shooting variance explains much of his poor stats from 2023-24.
Cam Thomas’ green light, Brooklyn
I’m not sure whether this qualifies as a genuine breakout or just something that’s going to be fun as hell to watch. But if we’re talking about touches and opportunity? Sheesh. Thomas had 36 points on 27 shots opening night in Atlanta, and if you look at the Nets’ roster, that trend line seems likely to continue. There’s just nobody else on the team who can create shot volume like Thomas, and the volume will only increase if Brooklyn moves Dennis Schröder’s expiring contract.
Thomas has always been a high-volume player, ranking sixth in the league in field goal frequency a year ago. However, the criticism was about quality, not quantity. In the past, there have been too many tough 2-point jumpers and little in the way of playmaking, both of which dragged down his efficiency. Thomas corrected some of that in the opener, getting off 13 3-point attempts and making seven, and interjecting at least a couple of passing reads that let you talk yourself into growth there.
After 48 hours, he was third in the NBA in field goal attempts and second in scoring. With few other options on the Nets’ roster and operating in a contract year, Thomas may stay near the top of both columns all season.
This isn’t quite on Thomas’ level, but Powell is in a contract year and looks set to re-establish at least some of his value on a Clippers team that really needs his scoring. Or maybe, as a “Cheers” fan, I just like to yell out “Norm!” occasionally.
Either way, Powell will be the second option next to James Harden for as long as Kawhi Leonard is out. When Leonard returns, Powell will likely revert to a sixth man role. A 17-point, four-assist opener in Phoenix is a good start for this trend line, and Powell did this while going 1 of 7 from 3 (he’s a 39.4 percent career shooter from distance).
Powell has the added benefit of no longer having to watch the Russell Westbrook show when he checks in with the Clippers’ subs. Instead, with Leonard injured and Paul George departed, it mostly will be his show any time Harden is off the floor. While Powell thrives best as a secondary scorer rather than a get-out-of-my-way guy, he’ll also have significant overlap with Harden where he can thrive off the ball. At age 31, he could end up threatening his career-high scoring average of 19.6 from back in Toronto.
Sign up to get The Bounce, the essential NBA newsletter from Zach Harper and The Athletic staff, delivered free to your inbox.
(Photo of Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson: Tyler Kaufman / Getty Images)