As the calendar turns from September to October, the stakes ramp up in conference races for potential College Football Playoff contenders. The season’s first month brought quality nonconference matchups and an SEC classic between Georgia and Alabama. This month establishes separation among the CFP contenders and bowl-caliber squads.
For this week’s CFP breakdown, let’s examine the four types of games that will shape the month. They include those with massive implications, with both teams not only having a shot to reach the CFP but also to host a first-round game or earn a bye. The second category identifies the sneaky-important matchups that have the potential to become pivotal. The third category establishes potential CFP elimination games in which the loser likely falls completely out of the CFP chase. The fourth pits teams with CFP hopes against those who could thwart iconic seasons.
This post highlights eight games — two in each category — while listing 24 games that have the potential to shake up the CFP field.
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Massive implications
Ohio State at Oregon, Oct. 12
Georgia at Texas, Oct. 19
Both games could reach 10 million viewers, which is a major reason both conferences expanded. But more than just ratings are involved. Not only are CFP ramifications at stake, but these matchups also provide a window into how conference championship chases could unfold. The Big Ten battle royale features No. 3 Ohio State at No. 6 Oregon, while No. 2 Texas hosts No. 5 Georgia.
The Buckeyes (4-0) and Ducks (4-0) last played in 2021, and Oregon ran the ball at will with 269 rushing yards in a 35-28 win. Now, both teams are under the Big Ten umbrella and feature former Big 12 transfer quarterbacks (Ohio State with former Kansas State star Will Howard; Oregon with ex-Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel). It could be the first of two, perhaps even three, meetings between Ohio State and Oregon.
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Texas-Georgia carries perhaps even more importance, at least for the Bulldogs (3-1). After falling short in a shootout with Alabama, Georgia likely would miss the SEC championship with another loss. Though that wouldn’t end the Bulldogs’ Playoff hopes, it would prevent them from gaining a bye or perhaps hosting a first-round game. As for Texas (5-0), which plays Oklahoma the previous week, wins in both games would just about lock up a Playoff spot based on the remaining schedule.
Others: Oklahoma vs. Texas in Dallas, Oct. 12; Penn State at USC, Oct. 12; Alabama at Tennessee, Oct. 19; Missouri at Alabama, Oct. 26
Boise State has high hopes to win the Mountain West behind the nation’s leader in rushing yards and TDs: Ashton Jeanty. (Brian Losness / Imagn Images)
Sneaky important
Nebraska at Indiana, Oct. 19
Boise State at UNLV, Oct. 25
Only once since 2007 has Indiana won at least seven games in a season. Nebraska is the only power-conference program not to qualify for a bowl since 2016. Both facts could crumble in Bloomington. Should Indiana (5-0) take care of Northwestern this week, the Hoosiers will battle Nebraska (4-1) to reach a seventh victory. Likewise, if the Huskers knock off unbeaten Rutgers, they’ll play IU for a bowl berth. In the big picture, the winner stays in strong contention for a CFP spot. Narrowly, it’s a rich contrast in quarterbacking styles between senior transfer Kurtis Rourke (Indiana) and true freshman Dylan Raiola (Nebraska).
The Group of 5’s top two teams clash in Las Vegas with a likely spot in the Mountain West championship at stake. No. 25 UNLV (4-0) won at Big 12 opponents Houston and Kansas and crushed Fresno State 59-14 last week. The Rebels look like a legitimate CFP team and perhaps not a first-round party favor for one of the top at-large squads. Likewise, No. 21 Boise State (3-1) was a field goal away on the game’s final play from taking Oregon to overtime. The Broncos feature the nation’s leading rusher, Ashton Jeanty. This matchup (and perhaps a rematch in the Mountain West title game) will impact the Group of 5 CFP spot more than any other in the regular season.
Others: Iowa at Ohio State, Oct. 5; Missouri at Texas A&M, Oct. 5; Arizona at BYU, Oct. 12; BYU at UCF, Oct. 26
Possible eliminator
Kansas State at Colorado, Oct. 12
Oklahoma at Ole Miss, Oct. 26
Colorado (4-1) and Kansas State (4-1) once were stalwarts of the old Big 12 North Division, with one or the other competing for the championship in six straight seasons from 2000 to 2005. They’ve met 66 times as Big Eight, then Big 12 foes before the Buffaloes left for the Pac-12 in 2011. Now they’ve returned to the Big 12, and this could mark the league’s most exciting matchup. Colorado features Heisman hopeful Travis Hunter and likely first-round quarterback Shedeur Sanders, and Kansas State boasts quarterback Avery Johnson and several quality receivers. Both teams have a loss, and another one could severely dent their at-large potential.
Oklahoma (4-1) and Ole Miss (4-1) each have a loss, and they could have a second one by the time they meet in late October. If that’s the case, this truly is an elimination contest. Kentucky shocked Ole Miss last weekend, and Oklahoma lost two weeks ago to Tennessee. It’s strange to see these teams meet under the SEC banner, and they’ve played each other just once previously, in the 1999 Independence Bowl. This game promises to have fireworks based on OU quarterback Michael Hawkins’ comeback against Auburn and Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart’s high-flying numbers.
Others: SMU at Louisville, Oct. 5; Utah at Arizona State, Oct. 12; Michigan at Illinois, Oct. 19; LSU at Texas A&M, Oct. 26
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Upset watch
Iowa State at West Virginia, Oct. 12
Florida State at Miami, Oct. 26
The Big 12 once tried to staple Iowa State and West Virginia together as a season-ending series, but it didn’t take. Last year was the first time they hadn’t played since the Mountaineers (2-2) entered the Big 12, but there’s usually a little sizzle when they face off. This year, the No. 16 Cyclones (4-0) are rolling on defense (7.3 points per game), but they’ve lost three of their last four in Morgantown. West Virginia plays 11 power-conference opponents this year and opened with top-10 Penn State at home. It also lost late in a shootout at Pitt. The battle-tested Mountaineers are no pushover and will knock off some Big 12 contenders in October.
Florida State (1-4) easily is the nation’s most disappointing team. At worst, the Seminoles expected to have one loss right now, not four. But if there’s anything that will give FSU juice, it’s a chance to knock off No. 8 Miami (5-0). The Seminoles have won three straight in the series, and there’s nothing like familiarity to bring out the best in a disappointed competitor. Miami barely eked out a win against Virginia Tech when a Hail Mary pass was ruled incomplete after a long video review. But if we’ve learned anything with this series, anything is possible (wide), right?
Others: Pitt at North Carolina, Oct. 5; Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech in Atlanta (Mercedes-Benz Stadium), Oct. 19; Auburn at Missouri, Oct. 19; Michigan State at Michigan, Oct. 26
(Top photo of Texas’ Colin Simmons and David Gbenda: David Buono / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)