NFL WEEK 3 PICKS: More disappointment in Big D for Cowboys

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The lines are from Covers.com and the home teams are in CAPs.

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New England +6.5 over NEW YORK JETS

Should’ve known better that the Jets would be fired up for Aaron Rodgers making his homecoming after blowing out his Achilles four plays into last season.

Chicago +1.5 over INDIANAPOLIS

Caleb Williams and the Bears offence has struggled mightily through two games, but the Colts defence has been amongst the league’s worst. Even facing Malik Willis last week, Indy couldn’t adapt its D to force the below-average QB to throw the ball.

CLEVELAND -6.5 over New York Giants

Which franchise is more upset with their current starting QB? Things seem to falling apart for the Giants, with terrible roster management literally kicking them in the ass. The Browns have had their struggles through two weeks, but should do well with home-field advantage here.

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Green Bay +1.5 over TENNESSE

Look, if there’s a chance that Jordan Love can play this week – he took part in practice and reportedly would play even if not at 100% — then you have to back the Packers at this price.

NEW ORLEANS -2.5 over Philadelphia

Everyone seems to be riding the red-hot Saints right now but the vibes are way off in Philly. Coach Nick Sirianni is looking like he could be the scapegoat sooner rather than later and the passing game isn’t good enough without A.J. Brown in the lineup.

PITTSBURGH -1.5 over L.A. Chargers

The early season reports on Justin Fields are better than expected and he has been making the right decisions on the field, even if it hasn’t led to big games. Justin Herbert came out of the win at Carolina with a “significant limp” and that could make him easy pickings against this vaunted Steelers defence. Hosts should win a close one.

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MINNESOTA +1.5 over Houston

It looks like Justin Jefferson will play through his quad injury, but will it be enough for the ailing Vikings? The Texans will have to overcome Joe Mixon’s injury, but we’re thinking this could be a Stefon Diggs revenge game.

TAMPA BAY -6.5 over Denver

Not only will the Broncos have to deal with an early kickoff and some lengthy travel, they’ll also have to deal with some pretty brutal Florida heat and humidity. Bo Nix hasn’t impressed so far and some questionable coaching from Sean Payton cost his team last week.

Carolina +5.5 over LAS VEGAS

No matter what happens next with Bryce Young, you can’t argue that the Panthers haven’t done much to help last year’s top pick one bit. Andy Dalton can be a serviceable game manager and calming veteran influence. Will Carolina win this? Probably not but we can’t lay this many points with Gardner Minshew.

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SEATTLE -4.5 over Miami

The big number we’re looking at here is 4,394. That’s the distance the Dolphins are flying from Miami to Seattle for this game. Even worse, Skyler Thompson is getting the start at QB with Tua Tagovailoa on the IR after suffering another concussion last Thursday. De’Von Achane has lived up to his pre-season hype, but how long can he hold up if he gets another 29 touches in a game like he did last week and Raheem Mostert is still dealing with a chest injury. The Dolphins could be 0-2 right now if not for a fortunate fumble in Week 1 by the Jags and it looks like they’re ripe to drop another one here.

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Detroit -3 over ARIZONA

The Lions came up well short as one of our big picks last week and were lucky to cover in Week 1. The public has finally turned on the Lions with the majority of bettors backing the hosts this week. We’re not that fickle though, despite Arizona looking excellent in dismantling the Rams last week. But Detroit was 8-2 ATS on the road last year and could get off to a good start again.

San Francisco -7.5 over L.A. RAMS

The 49ers have struggled over the past few years whenever Deebo Samuel has been hurt, but it’s hard to remember a team more banged up than the L.A. Rams. Without Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua, it’s going to be an absolute struggle to move the ball against the Niners.

Baltimore -1 over DALLAS*

The Ravens were our pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl but would drop to 0-3 with a loss in Dallas. The reigning MVP Lamar Jackson ranks fifth in the league in passing yards and 10^th in rushing yards and, while it’s still early to use DVOA as a decider, the Ravens offence ranks fourth in the league. Dallas got run all over last week at home against the Saints and it’s not hard to see it happening again. Without a decent run game, Dallas’ offence will struggle against good opponents. The Cowboys also have a Thursday nighter next up, even if it is against the lowly Giants, but you can’t take a division rival lightly. It’s going to be more disappointment in Big D.

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ATLANTA +3.5 over Kansas City

The Chiefs very well could be 0-2 right now instead of the being undefeated. It’s not going to get easier this week, either, with Isiah Pacheco going on the IR with a broken leg. The Falcons capitalized on a mistake by the Eagles last week to pull off a stunning win and there’s no reason to think Atlanta can’t at least keep it close.

Jacksonville +5.5 over BUFFALO

The Jags have won the past two Josh Allen Bowls, including a 9-6 matchup three years ago when the team was brutal. Allen the QB has been playing at MVP level so far, but also had an excellent outing against the Jags last year and still lost. Our skepticism is enough to grab the points.

CINCINNATI -7.5 over Washington

For some reason, we get two Monday nighters in Week 3. This one probably should’ve been buried on Sunday afternoon. The Commanders offence hasn’t found a rhythm yet while there was a lot to like from the Bengals despite losing to their rival Chiefs last week.

Last week: 5-11

This season: 10-21-1

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