Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on October 04, 2023 in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
Lower-than-expected payroll growth
Private payrolls grew just 89,000 for September, according to ADP. That’s almost half of the 160,000 estimate from economists, and sharply lower than the upwardly revised figure of 180,000 in August. Another sign the labor market could be loosening: Annual wage growth slowed to 5.9%, the 12th consecutive monthly decline.
Cocoa trader’s crypto testimony
Marc-Antoine Julliard, a cocoa bean trader who lost $100,000 to FTX, was the prosecution’s first witness in the criminal fraud trial against FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. Julliard’s testimony set the tone for the government’s narrative that FTX deceived ordinary customers — who weren’t aggressive crypto traders — into believing money at FTX was safe.
Frontrunners for Speaker
U.S. Representatives Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise have emerged as frontrunners to replace Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker. Jordan’s a founding member of the hardline conservative House Freedom Caucus, while Scalise’s pitching himself as a consensus builder. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who’s currently in the middle of a civil fraud trial, was also floated as a possible speaker.
[PRO] Heading for a debt crisis?
The U.S. is headed for a debt crisis because of its burgeoning fiscal deficit — and markets are still showing signs of “relative complacency,” according to Matthew McLennan, co-head of First Eagle’s Global Value team. Here’s how he’s planning to manage the risk, and what he’s buying to hedge against possible losses.
The bottom line
Investors got a brief reprieve from bad news and rising costs yesterday, which helped to ease pressure from stocks.
Additionally, oil prices ebbed yesterday, diminishing another source of inflationary worry. Both November futures for West Texas Intermediate crude and December futures for Brent fell around 5.6% to $84.22 and $85.81 a barrel, respectively. Those are the lowest prices for oil futures since August.
Finally, the ISM nonmanufacturing index for September came in at 53.6. It’s a slight dip from August’s reading of 54.5, but, at a level above 50, still indicates an expansion of service activity in the U.S. That’s what soft-landing proponents want to see: Continuing growth, but not too hot.
All those positive movements pushed down Treasury yields Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year note dropped nearly 7 basis points to 4.735% while the 2-year yield fell 9 basis points to 5.054%.
This gave stocks a chance to catch their breath (Tesla, notably, jumped 5.93%). The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.39%, snapping three consecutive sessions of losses. The S&P 500 rose 0.81% and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.35%. The Cboe Volatility Index, commonly known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, pulled back by nearly 1 point.
But this might just be a momentary rally.
“I don’t think you get a broader [rally] participation until rates ease up, and that’s only if rates ease without some sort of financial crisis or hard landing recession,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird.
Echoing Mayfield, Liz Young, SoFi’s head of investment strategy, said, “Obviously, we’re getting a little reprieve today, but I think it’s just that.”
“It’s a brief reprieve.”