JERUSALEM –
For many across the Middle East, the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire came as a relief: the first major sign of progress in the region since war began more than a year ago.
But for Palestinians in Gaza and families of hostages held in the territory, the news appeared only to inaugurate a newer, grimmer period of the conflict there. For them, it marked yet another missed opportunity to end fighting that has stretched on for nearly 14 months.
Palestinians had hoped that any ceasefire deal with Hezbollah would include a truce in Gaza as well. The families of people kidnapped when Hamas-led militants stormed southern Israel in October 2023, meanwhile, wanted part of the agreement to include returning their loved ones. Instead, the ceasefire was confined only to the fighting in Lebanon.
“We feel this is a missed opportunity to tie in the hostages in this agreement that was signed today,” said Rubi Chen, whose son, Itay Chen, was taken hostage from an Israeli military base.
As much as they were intertwined, the two wars have been very different. In Lebanon, Israel said its aim was to drive Hezbollah back from the countries’ shared border and end the militant group’s barrages into northern Israel. The ceasefire that took effect Wednesday is intended to do that.
In Gaza, Israel’s goals are more sweeping. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been resolute in insisting that Hamas must be completely destroyed and Israel must retain lasting control over parts of the territory. Months of talks have failed to get Netanyahu to back down from those demands — or to convince Hamas to release hostages under those terms.
For Palestinians in Gaza, that means continuing misery under an Israeli campaign that has demolished much of the territory and driven almost the entire population from their homes. Hundreds of thousands are going hungry while living in squalid tent cities as the second winter of the war brings cold rains and flooding.
”They agree to a ceasefire in one place and not in the other? Have mercy on the children, the elderly and the women,” said Ahlam Abu Shalabi, living in tent in central Gaza. “Now it is winter, and all the people are drowning.”
Palestinians feel resigned to continued war
The war between Israel and Hamas began on Oct. 7, 2023, when militants attacked Israel from Gaza, killing around 1,200 people and taking some 250 hostage. Israel’s retaliatory offensive has rained devastation on the Palestinian territory, killing over 44,000 people, according to local health officials. The officials, who do not distinguish between civilians and fighters in their count, say over half of the dead are women and children.
Hezbollah began firing into Israel a day after Hamas’ attack in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group. The two sides have exchanged near-daily barrages since. Moving thousands of troops to its northern border, Israel ramped up bombardment of southern Lebanon and launched a ground invasion there two months ago, killing many of Hezbollah’s leaders.
Palestinians now fear Israel’s military can return its full focus to Gaza — a point that Netanyahu made as he announced the ceasefire in Lebanon on Tuesday.
“The pressure will be more on Gaza,” said Mamdouh Younis, a displaced man in a central Gaza tent camp. Netanyahu, he said, can now exploit the fact that “Gaza has become alone, far from all the arenas that were supporting it, especially the Lebanon front.”
Israeli troops are already engaged in fierce fighting in Gaza’s north, where a two-month offensive has cut off most aid and caused experts to warn a famine may be underway. Strikes all over the territory regularly kill dozens.
In signing onto the ceasefire deal, Hezbollah reversed its long-held position that it wouldn’t stop its barrages across the border unless Israel ends the war in Gaza.
“This could have a psychological impact, as it will further entrench the understanding that Palestinians in Gaza are alone in resisting against their occupiers,” said Tariq Kenney Shawa, a U.S. policy fellow at Al-Shabaka, a Palestinian think tank.
Hamas may dig its heels in
It also leaves Hamas — its capabilities already severely damaged by Israel’s offensive — to fight alone. Hamas official Osama Hamdan appeared to accept Hezbollah’s new position in an interview Monday.
“Any announcement of a ceasefire is welcome. Hezbollah has stood by our people and made significant sacrifices,” Hamdan told the Lebanese broadcaster Al-Mayadeen, which is seen as politically allied with Hezbollah.
Khalil Sayegh, a Palestinian analyst, said the ceasefire could make Hamas even less popular in Gaza, by proving the failure of its gambit that its attack on Israel would rally other militant groups to the fight.
“It’s a moment where we can see the Hamas messaging become weaker and weaker, as they struggle to justify their strategy to the public,” said Sayegh.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday that the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire could help force Hamas to the negotiating table because it would show the group that the “cavalry is not on the way.”
But Hamas experts predicted that it would only dig in both on the battlefield and in talks. Hamas has insisted it will only release all the hostages in return for a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
“I expect Hamas will continue using guerrilla warfare to confront Israeli forces in Gaza as long as they remain,” said Shawa.
Hostage families lose hope
Dozens of Israelis thronged a major highway in Tel Aviv on Tuesday night, protesting for the return of the hostages as the country waited to hear if a ceasefire in Lebanon had been agreed.
Around 100 people taken hostage are still held in Gaza, at least a third of whom are believed to be dead. Most of the other hostages seized by Hamas were released during a ceasefire last year.
Ricardo Grichener, the uncle of 23-year-old hostage Omer Wenkert, said the ceasefire with Hezbollah showed how the Israeli government was openly disregarding the hostages.
Even though Israel has inflicted greater damage on Hamas in Gaza than on Hezbollah in Lebanon, he said “the decision to postpone a deal in Gaza and release the hostages is not based on the same military success criteria.”
The most recent effort to wind down the war stalled in October. U.S. President Joe Biden said Tuesday he would begin a renewed push, but his administration is now in its waning days after the reelection of former U.S. president Donald Trump.
“This ceasefire doesn’t concern our hostages. I believe that Netanyahu forgot about them, and he just wants to keep fighting in Gaza,” said Ifat Kalderon, clutching a photo of her cousin, Ofer Kalderon, who is a hostage and a father to four.
“Ofer yesterday had his 54th birthday. His second birthday in Gaza,” she said. “It’s unbelievable that he’s still there.”